Christmas season snapshot thoughts on Noles/Bucs/Magic/Bolts

 

     Christmas season feels like as good a time as any to take the temperature on these 4. The Seminoles are officially in the offseason (thank God), the Buccaneers are entering the final stretch of their regular season, and the Bolts and Magic are between a quarter and a third of the way through each of theirs.

     Same format as the NFL-snapshot article. No fancy intro, just want to get into the meat of these 4 and where things stand (spoiler: cautious optimism for 3 of them, pure frustration and apathy for the other).

     Let's get the unpleasant part out of the way first....

Florida State Seminoles

Guess we're still doing this....

     Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results. And that sort of feels like where we're at.

     I really like Mike and still supported him after the abysmal 2024 season, but more and more I'm feeling that he just doesn't have the answers and is in over his head. My opinion of him began to change after the Pitt game, and then after Stanford the following week I was ready for a change. Clemson, NC State, and Florida all only further supported that feeling. I think he really did try like hell this offseason and that his care for the players, university, and community is genuine, but ultimately it's the results that matter and they just haven't been good enough. We went a full year in between ACC wins and it will have been 1000 days since our last true road win ('23 UF) when we get our next opportunity (September 2026). Those statistics would get you fired even at bottom-tier ACC schools, let alone a program with FSU's pedigree.

     Mike can't assume all the blame. There were times the players didn't execute, or made bad mistakes. And there were times FSU simply had the worst luck. But end of the day the majority of the culpability rests with Norvell. Mike handpicked the players, Mike handpicked the staff, Mike's responsibility is to prepare them to be successful on a weekly basis. When a company goes bankrupt who gets blamed? The CEO or the junior-level staff?

     But then following NC State, several university higher-ups released simultaneous statements announcing Norvell would be retained and they would continue to support him. To me the driving force behind this is still the mammoth buyout of over $50 million. FSU isn't able to just pluck off its money tree the way LSU and Penn State can. If it did, Norvell's buyout would be the second largest in college football history (ironically Jimbo Fisher's Texas A&M buy out of 77 million is the highest). It would likely cost an ADDITIONAL 50 million to fire the rest of the staff, and then hire a new head coach, 2 new coordinators, and a brand new staff, so it's no exaggeration when I say this is a $100 million dollar decision.

     The truth we now know is that the administration was always going to keep him. They wanted the fans to believe that the results mattered, and then gambled on being able to issue a vote of confidence after Norvell had a strong finish. But the post NC State game statement proves no move was ever going to be made.

The offseason priority will be re-vamping the front office

     It's been reported from multiple sources that FSU believes it's largest monetary investment needs to be aimed at upgrading the GM/front office. The goal is to make this more of an NFL-esque group: a group of individuals with a sharp eye for talent acquisition and roster construction, but also a group that understands finances and negotiations and can navigate a salary cap if one ever gets instituted. The belief is that Norvell can still coach the team well if the staff is bringing in the right people to be coached, as we saw in 2023 and 2022. There are a couple FSU alumni currently working in Senior Executive/Advisor to the GM type roles for NFL teams currently and FSU has been in contact with those individuals.

One Silver Lining: FSU is a young team and most of that talent will return and be better

     After last year's mass exodus, FSU had to rely on a large number of younger players this season, and many of them showed reasons for optimism. I'm sure some will hit the portal, but if the majority of the staff stays, I think the majority of young players who played significant minutes will elect to return as well. And that could be key when other rival programs will be losing large handfuls of their starters and key players.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chances of making a run hinge on getting healthy

     Tampa has been through the ringer this year. Mike Evans (clavicle), Tristan Wirfs (knee), Chris Godwin (fibula), Bucky Irving (shoulder), and Jalen McMillan (neck) have all missed significant time, while defensive lineman Calijah Kancey (torn pec) and offensive lineman Cody Mauch (knee) suffered season ending injuries. Baker Mayfield also left Sunday's game with a sprained AC joint on his non-throwing shoulder. The offensive line and wide receiver groups specifically have had to go deep into their depth charts and thrust players into the fire who are either less talented, inexperienced, or both.

     Despite all of that, the Bucs have weathered the storm enough to still give themselves a chance down the stretch, They still hold a narrow lead in the NFC South over the Panthers, and every player on the list except for Kancey and Mauch is expected back at some point between now and season's end. If the stars align and the Bucs get healthy at the right time, it's not out of the realm of possibility for them to make some noise in the playoffs and be a dark horse.

The 2 remaining games against the Panthers will likely decide the NFC South

     The Bucs play Carolina twice in the final 3 weeks of season, once at home, once away. Currently Tampa sits at 6-5 and Carolina sits at 6-6. If the Panthers keep it close entering those final 3 weeks, these games will ultimately decide the fate of the division. A 1-1 split is the most likely outcome, but if either team wins both meetings, that team probably ends up winning the division.

Offense can be a top-5 offense in the NFL when healthy

     It's only been a super small sample of snaps that they have all shared the field together, but an offense with Baker Mayfield throwing, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan all catching, Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker running, Cade Otton playing tight end, and a healthy offensive line blocking, has proven it can score points in bunches and be among the league's best.

Defense remains a bigger question mark

     Much like last year, I'm still not convinced this is a Super Bowl caliber defense. The past 3 weeks the Bucs D has allowed a combined 102 points. To be fair, those games were against New England, Buffalo, and the Rams, all high scoring offenses, but those are the kinds of offenses Tampa will need to figure out how to slow down if it wants to make a Super Bowl run.

In Bridgewater we trust?

     If Baker does end up missing time, backup QB Teddy Bridgewater becomes an important part of the equation. Losing your starting quarterback is always a massive blow, especially in the heat of a tight playoff race, but Tampa has faith that Bridgewater can step in a lead the offense if necessary. Baker might be the toughest QB in the entire NFL, but this is not something worth rushing him back on and risking further injury. It's more important to have him available down the road for more important, must-win type games. My gut feels as though he misses at least 1 game.

The last 6 games are all super winnable

     This is Tampa's remaining schedule:

Arizona

New Orleans

Atlanta

@ Carolina

@ Miami

Carolina

     None of those teams have winning records, in fact all of them except the 6-6 Panthers have losing records. And 4 of the 6 are at home, with one of the 2 road games still being in-state. This lines up well for the Bucs. Winning at least 4 of these gets you to 10 wins and that total probably puts you in the playoffs. And from there, we'll see....

Tampa Bay Lightning

One of the hottest teams in hockey right now

     No, seriously. After a slow start where Tampa only won 1 of their first 7 games, the Bolts have hit their stride, having won 12 of their last 15 and having ascended to the top of their division. That's right, if the season ended today the Bolts would win the Atlantic Division, which would grant them home-ice advantage through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. Tampa's record currently sits at 13-7-2.

The Stanley Cup is a legitimate possibility

    According to Vegas sportsbooks, the Lightning have the 3rd highest odds to win the East and reach the Stanley Cup Finals, and the 5th highest odds to win the Cup outright. Only the Panthers and Hurricanes have better odds to win the East, and only those two plus the Avalanche and Golden Knights (who both play in the West) have better odds to win the Stanley Cup.

All the Ingredients are still there to make 1 more run

     Offensively we know that Kucherov, Point, and Guentzel will generate a large amount of goals, with Cirelli, Hagel, and Paul contributing a fair amount of their own. Younger players like Connor Geekie, Gage Goncalves, Dominic James, and Jack Finley have been ahead of schedule in their developments as well.

     Defensively we know Victor Hedman, Eric Cernak, and Ryan McDonough can be true anchors. JJ Moser has been solid in his second year with the team as well.

     In goal, we know Vasy is still one of the best goaltenders in the world. When he's on his A-game, very little will get by him.

     Jon Cooper is still the coach and is still one of the league's best, as evidenced by his 2 Stanley Cups. Kucherov, Point, Hedman, Vasy, Cirelli, Cernak, and McDonough were all key members of those Cup teams as well, with Hagel and Paul also being key members of the team in 2022 when the team reached the Cup but fell just short to Colorado. It's a veteran group that's reached the mountain top multiple times before, and maybe, just maybe, it could do it again.

Orlando Magic

Similar to the Lightning, rounding into form

     A 1-4 start raised come concerns. Would there be buyer's remorse on trading all those picks for Desmond Bane? Was Jamahl Mosely still the right man to lead the team?