FSU, is it time for a change? The case for and against

 

     Where to begin. Crazy to think that just 3 weeks ago, this team was top 10 in the country and had ACC title and playoff aspirations. Mike Norvell was firmly off the hotseat, Castellanos was an early Heisman candidate, and the new coordinators appeared to be true game-changing hires. Fast-forward to today, and the narrative has flipped on it's head. 3 straight losses has the fanbase raising their pitchforks and discussing buyout economics once again. Hopes of playoffs and conference titles can be kissed goodbye, and expectations have been re-adjusted (in the bad way) to now wondering if this will even be a bowl-eligible team or if it's even a top-3 team in the state.

     I've been a Norvell supporter from the beginning, but Saturday was the first time I began to seriously question if he was still the right man to steer the ship or if the guy was in over his head. It's becoming tiring to continually lose to programs that we should beat on paper and to see the same mistakes haunt them over and over week after week, and to a certain degree the fans' frustrations are completely justified.

     So this led to some deeper thinking, is it time for a change or no? Trying to look at it rationally and not just acting off of negative impulse, there are some compelling points for both sides. So I thought it would be interesting to write an article arguing the case for, and case against, firing Norvell and cleaning house.

The Case For

It's year 6...

Perhaps this has run its course. A head coach normally gets 3-4 years to implement his ways and turn things around. Technically he did that, however the expectation is then to sustain it, not revert back to square 1 and need to rebuild it again.

It's so far below the standard

When we were college students, this team never won fewer than 10 games. It won the ACC 3 times, a national title once, a Heisman trophy, was a playoff semi-finalist once, and had a 29-game win streak from late 2012 to early 2015. They were perennially in the top 10 and always in the national title hunt. Even before the Jimbo Fisher era, the Bobby Bowden era in it's prime also featured multiple championships, perennial top 5 finishes, and numerous ACC titles. How the mighty have fallen.

If this doesn't turn around, 4 of his 6 seasons will have been bad.

His record by year would be as follows:

2020: 3-6 (shortened season due to COVID)
2021: 5-7

2022: 10-3

2023: 13-1

2024: 2-10
2025 so far: 3-3

To be fair, those first 2 were cleaning up the mess left by Willie Taggart and Jimbo Fisher, but 4 bad years out of 6 would get most people fired.

Since the playoff snub, he has a record of 5-14. Only 2-14 against schools from major conferences, and 1-10 in the ACC.

That simply cannot happen here. They are too talented and too established of a program to win only 25% of their games and only 13% against real competition. Even at a bottom-tier ACC school this would get you fired.

Recruiting has been subpar, and high school development has been lacking

They only have 1 top-15 class (the year after the 13-1 season) and haven't had a top 10 class since the Jimbo days. The current class ranks 13th but obviously that will change, for better or for worse, between now and early December when they sign.

When it comes to the high school kids they do bring in, the development has been lacking of the ones who actually stick around (several have transferred out, which is a problem in itself). Decommitments were a huge issue last year as well with many high schoolers decommitting upon the poor on-field results and firing of various staff members (and honestly who can blame them). Hopefully all of this (recruiting, development, retention) gets better under the new staff.

Better options out there?

If it reaches the point of an actual firing, I'll do a separate article with a wish-list and hot-board with some names to monitor. We're not going to go there yet, but if the honest belief is there's someone else they can get who can do the job better, and they can afford it, then why wouldn't they?

The defense is just awful

This is the biggest and most-glaring on-the-field problem. They have allowed 108 points over the last 3 games, and that could be even higher had Miami not taken their foot off the gas. They're bad at tackling, they're bad in coverage, guys run wide open across the middle of the field and then run 30 extra yards after catching the ball, and somehow they get dominated in the trenches despite being bigger and stronger than opponents like Virginia and Pitt. The hope was that upgrading coordinators and overhauling the roster would fix these issues, but so far it hasn't. You can argue for firing Tony White (defensive coordinator) and holding him responsible, but Mike ultimately hired White and signs off on his playbook and decisions, so responsibility falls with Norvell as well.

Is he really a good evaluator of talent?

     He has had to dip ultra-heavy into the transfer portal. This worked well early, but they brought in all the wrong people last season, and perhaps this season as well. The problem is, he truly believes he is bringing in the right people, only to be proven wrong on the field.

     A similar argument could be made for the staff. Mike ultimately hired his initial staff, and almost all are now fired. He has now hired an almost entirely new second staff, and questions already exist at least with the defensive members. Even if he fired defensive coaches, can he really be trusted with a third attempt at hires?

Penn State just ponied up $50 million to fire James Franklin

     Norvell's buyout is slightly higher but not far off. But Penn State's administration isn't playing around. The standards are high, and if you don't meet them, you will be shown the door. This is how programs that are serious about winning operate.

The longer you wait, the less of a head start you get on your rivals

     Penn State is the first domino to fall, and in acting quickly they now get their pick of the litter in people to interview and ultimately hire. It's a job that will be very attractive to a large number of people. If Florida ultimately fires Billy Napier, they will also enter the chat. Possibility also exists for other struggling programs with high standards like Clemson and Auburn. If FSU ultimately plans to pull the trigger, it would be wise to do so before these other teams do and start competing for the same coaches.

Too many losses to teams they have more talent than

     For the longest time, Clemson and Miami were the only two ACC foes where the game was even question. Over the past 2 years, they have losses to Georgia Tech, Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Pittsburgh, and SMU, all teams they would have been expected to not just beat, but demolish, in the Bowden/Fisher days. Some credit can be given to some of those individual programs improving and closing the gap, and you're allowed to lose a game you shouldn't here and there, but the list is growing uncomfortably large in a small period of time.

He would have been fired already if not for an unrealistic buyout

     Sad but probably true. Going 2-10 last year was a low point this program hadn't seen in 50 years. We were continually promised that it would get fixed but those words are beginning to feel like false promises. I appreciate his fire and determination, but maybe he's just not capable of turning this around.

The Case Against

Of the 3 losses, 1 was in double-OT and the other 2 were by a combined 9 points, and none were to bad teams

Let's dive deeper into these.

Virginia was a back and forth game that was 1 play away from a different outcome on multiple occasions. This also had all the ingredients of a classic trap game (road game, week night, preceding a big rivalry weekend, etc.). That Virginia team is also now ranked #18.

Miami is by far the best team they have played and is clearly one of the best in the entire country, as indicated by its current #2 ranking. A 6 point loss to a top-2 team is nothing to scoff at. Some will argue the game wasn't as close as the final score indicates, given Miami was up 28-3 and took their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter. But FSU was still able to scratch and claw their way back in. Had they recovered the final onside kick and gotten the ball back down 6 ,with a chance to complete a 25 point 4th quarter comeback against their arch rival, things would have gotten real interesting.

Pittsburgh is the least justifiable of the 3 losses, given that they are unranked and the game was in Doak. That being said, Pitt isn't as bad as some may think. They would be 5-1 if not for a late collapse against West Virginia, and their only other loss was a 7 point loss to Louisville, who is also a good team. FSU also dealt with several injuries in this game, especially to the pass-catchers, and they also had horrendous luck as Pitt had two fumbles that bounced right back to them, including one late in that game that could have altered the outcome.

3-3 isn't what we hoped for, but they're a couple plays away from being 5-1.

The offense, when fully healthy, looks good

This unit has scored at least 31 points in all but 1 game, including against a Bama team with NFL players all across their defense. Even the 22 points they scored against Miami are the second highest amount Miami has given up, with Notre Dame just barely eclipsing FSU with 24. Last year the offense was one of the worst in the country and seldom scored over 14 points per game, this one generates points, yards, and explosive plays. As aforementioned they were without 3 receivers, a tight end, a running back, and an offensive linemen against Pitt and still scored 31.

To Norvell's credit, he set his pride aside and relinquished the play-calling responsibility to offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. Napier is getting criticized for his stubbornness and unwillingness to do the same at Florida. At least Norvell was willing to let go of the reigns and assume more of a CEO/oversight role, which ultimately made the offense better.

The Bama game still represents what FSU can be at its full potential

It may feel like eons ago, but it's amazing what's possible when you play a clean, efficient game and this is most fired up and inspired the team has looked since '23. We now know Alabama is a legit team, ranked 6th in the country currently and very much in contention the SEC title and the national championship. And recall that FSU didn't just beat them, it was by multiple touchdowns and they were clearly the better, stronger, faster, smarter, more physical, and better coached team that day. If FSU approached every game with that same intentionality and chip on their shoulder mentality, and played that level of clean, disciplined, mistake free, efficient football, things would be so much different.

As bad as the defense has been otherwise, they did hold Bama, an offense loaded with future NFL stars, to 17 points in this game.

Still remembering 2022 and 2023.

We saw Mike clean up a big mess once before, so it's still possible he could do it again. In these two seasons, excluding the Orange Bowl where half the team opted out, FSU had a record of 23-3, including 14-3 in the ACC. That stretch included wins over LSU (twice), Miami (twice), Florida (twice), Clemson, Oklahoma, and an ACC Championship win over a ranked Louisville team. Even without Jordan Travis, Norvell still managed to coach the team to wins over Florida and Louisville with Tate Rodemaker and Brock Glenn quarterbacking. And if Travis doesn't get hurt it's 100% a playoff team. If the 12-team existed then, they probably make the playoff both of those years. Perhaps coaching deficiencies were masked by a team loaded with NFL talent, but Mike still got that talent here and helped develop it into NFL-caliber. I still want to believe that version of Norvell exists, and can turn this into a power house program once again.

The new staff needs more time

Outside of Norvell, the rest of this staff is entirely new. Is 6 games really a fair amount of time to start blowing things up and making changes? I would argue they need, at bare minimum, a full season to implement their schemes and influence, and probably even more to recruit players who better fit their respective schemes and styles. Have a little patience, these things take time.

The remaining games on the schedule are all winnable

Not saying they will win them all, just saying you can't look at any single one of them and write them off as an automatic loss.

Odds are they will be favored to beat Stanford, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech. UF is an interesting one because on paper they look better than us right now, however there's a possibility they fire Napier and clean house and guys start opting out and quitting before Thanksgiving weekend. The road trip to NC State feels toss-up-ish, another game where FSU probably has more talent on paper but historically NC State has been a house of horrors. That leaves the road trip to Clemson, a game I expect FSU will be an underdog on paper, but Clemson hasn't exactly looked great either and there's definitely a chance FSU pulls an upset there.

6 wins gets you to a bowl game, which also means extra revenue, and for FSU now every dollar counts. With a bowl game also comes extra practices and reps, which are incredibly helpful to younger players.

There are younger players showing potential

I won't name names but there are a handful from this past year's high school class that have been called upon and are making an immediate impact.

The buyout is still stupid high

Credit to Penn State, but not every school has $50 million lying around or can generate it in short order. That money would be needed to buy out Norvell alone, and then you'd need more for the new hire, any other staff firings/hirings, and NIL money for roster overhaul. You can spread it out over several years rather than paying the lump sum up front, as they did with Taggart, but this would still put FSU in a massive hole financially.

The Final Verdict

Keep him and see how this finishes, but this is thin ice

Perhaps I'm being loyal to a fault, but I'm in the camp of not wanting to throw in the towel yet, not wanting to pay the egregious buyout yet, and at least seeing this season through. In 2022 FSU started 4-3, and then went on to win their final 6 and finished 10-3. We now know that that team had a lot of future NFL talent, and maybe this one does or doesn't. But we've seen a response/strong finish once before. To me it just doesn't make sense, with such a new staff, to just blow it up and clean house only 6 games in.

That being said, there is no more margin for error. If they lose to Stanford this weekend, it's time. If they lose to either Wake Forest or Virginia Tech, it's time. If they finish 5-7 or worse, it's time. If he loses the locker room and the team quits, it's time.

Let's hope the scorching hot seat is the pressure Norvell and the staff ultimately need to get things fixed and get the response they desperately need. Sometimes desperation and the back-against-the-wall feeling can be a catalyst for positive change. I genuinely like the man and am very much rooting for him, even when others are ready to move on.