Current State of Things (2024 Edition)

 

     A little over a year ago, I wrote the inaugural edition of this annual piece. That version covered the 4 teams pictured above, as well as the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, FSU Basketball, Tennessee Titans, and Seattle Kraken. For 2024, I wanted to narrow that group to the 4 teams we follow more avidly than all the others, and spend a little more time on each than what was done last year when there were 9 different teams to recap. Meaning for this year, we're restricting to the Seminoles, Buccaneers, Lightning, and Magic.

     All 4 were successful in their own ways. The 3 pro-teams were all playoff teams and FSU was a top-5 team when healthy. It would be equally fair to say none of them were satisfied with the way things ended. FSU was snubbed of a playoff spot it rightfully earned after losing it's QB to a gruesome injury. The Bucs' season came to an end when Baker Mayfield through a game-sealing interception against the Detroit Lions on a last-minute drive that would have tied the game and forced overtime. The Lightning fell in the first round for a second straight season, losing to their in-state rival Florida in 5 games, and having two goals disallowed in the final game that sealed their fate. And the Magic blew an 18 point lead in a decisive Game 7 against the Cleveland Cavaliers that would have advanced them to round 2. None of these seasons should be considered a failure, yet all of them had the potential to go deeper. Cue the cliche "There's always next year!" phrase of optimism.

     So now all 4 teams turn their heads to the 2024-25 seasons. For the football teams the bulk of the roster reconstruction is complete, and the focus shifts to the actual training and preparation for the season. Conversely, the Lightning and Magic will have both Free Agency and the Draft this summer to attempt to add pieces to the roster that will improve the team moving forward. I'll recap the offseasons for the Noles and Bucs and discuss the expectations and goals for next season, and I'll preview the offseasons for the Bolts and Magic and talk about the big decisions that loom and the ways they could look to improve the team.

     What I love about restricting to these 4 teams as well is that they represent our past, present, and future. Florida State represents our college years, the Tampa teams represent where we met and the beginning of our journey, and Orlando represents where we got engaged and married and began to build our life together. We've also seen all 4 live together, most of them multiple times. (By my count: 1 FSU game, 3 Bucs games, 3 Lightning games, and 3 Magic games). 

     It's a long march between now and late August, so without further to do, here is the 2024 offseason primer:

FSU Football

League: NCAAF

Head Coach: Mike Norvell (Entering Year 5)

Last Season's Record: 13-1

Last Season's Result: Won ACC, finished #5 in country, did not make CFP

Best Result Ever: National Champions (1993, 1999, 2013)

     Recapping last season

     It's unfortunate that this season will always be remembered for the playoff snub (still not over it) because that aside FSU's 2023 season was a roaring success. The Seminoles went 13-0 for only the 3rd time in school history, won the ACC for the first time since 2014, and beat Clemson for the first time in 10 years as well. At full health, this team was a bona fide national title contender. Unfortunately, that dream was stripped from them from a group of individuals who selfishly wanted the perceived "best" match ups and determined they had enough game evidence to determine FSU would not be competitive without Jordan Travis, who suffered a gruesome season-ending leg injury in the 11th game of the season against North Alabama. Despite this, the Noles were still able to defeat arch rival Florida in the Swamp with a back up QB and then defeat Louisville in the ACC Championship game the following week with a 3rd string QB. After the playoff snub, the Seminoles drew Georgia in the Orange Bowl. Around 30 FSU players opted to sit out of the game, which led to a 63-3 thrashing as Georgia's roster of All-American talent dominated FSU's inexperienced group. 

     Despite this, it's undeniable that Mike Norvell has this group headed in the right direction. Over his first 4 seasons, the Seminoles went from 3 wins, to 5, to 10, to 13. This was evident to the rest of the country as well as Alabama highly pursued Mike Norvell for their head coaching vacancy when Nick Saban retired. Fortunately for us, Mike is a Seminole through and through, and his loyalty was rewarded with a massive extension and raise.

     Recapping Transfer Portal and Recuiting

     It's fair to say this was an even more entertaining offseason than usual for FSU. In addition to the usual business of the transfer portal and high school recruiting, the Noles also filed a lawsuit against the ACC in hopes of forcing their way out and as aforementioned Alabama made a hard push to pry Norvell away from Tallahassee. 

     The landscape of college football is drastically changing, with two true power conferences forming. The already strong ACC is adding Texas and Oklahoma this season, and the Big 10 is adding some West Coast powerhouse programs like USC, Oregon, and Washington. FSU sees what's happening and wants to be a part of it, however their contract with the ACC runs through 2036 and would require a massive buyout to break the contract. FSU is by far the ACC's biggest moneymaker and for that reason the ACC has no interest in letting them off the hook early. Clemson has also filed lawsuits against the conference for the same reasons and motivations as FSU. This is likely to be a long and dragged out process with no resolution coming in the near future. 

     FSU also had the unenvious task of replacing a plethora of departing talent, which includes 15 players now in the NFL. Fortunately between both the transfer portal and high school recruitment, FSU did all it could to fill these holes. They added 17 transfers in total, including 5 from Alabama who entered the portal following Saban's retirement. This included DJ Uiagelelei, the likely starting QB this season who spent two seasons at Clemson and 1 season at Oregon. DJ is no Jordan Travis, but he does bring a wealth of experience, and his larger NFL-like frame makes him less susceptible to injuries than Travis was. Regardless, FSU desperately needed to add an experienced QB, as Brock Glenn was the only one on the roster with actual game experience since Travis graduated and Rodemaker transferred. Bur FSU did well to load up in the transfer portal and address many of it's needs, which also included running back, wide receiver, linebackers, offensive lineman, edge rushers, and defensive backs. 

    FSU also brought in a talented group of 23 high school players to be developed over the next few years, which ranked as the 12th best class in the country. Perhaps most notably Luke Kromenhoek, the 4th highest ranked QB in the country. It would seem the plan is for DJ to start at QB this season, to then have Glenn and Kromenhoek compete for the starting job for 2025 and beyond. 

     What to expect in 2024

     Florida State's 2024 campaign and ACC title defense will begin in Dublin, Ireland on August 24 against Georgia Tech. The schedule will then consist of 7 more ACC opponents, including annual arch-rivals Miami and Clemson, and then 4 non-conference games against Florida, Notre Dame, Memphis, and Charleston Southern. I expect they would be the favorite in every game except for the road game at Notre Dame, with Clemson being a toss up game as well but I expect FSU to be a slight favorite with homefield advantage. According to Las Vegas sportsbooks, FSU and Clemson currently have identical odds to win the ACC Championship, with Miami and NC State having the next best odds. I still like FSU's chances ahead of Clemson's though. Clemson is a program that peaked from 2012 to 2021, but has seen a slow decline over the past few seasons, whereas FSU is ascending. 

     The good news for FSU is the playoff is expanding to 12 teams in 2024, which also guarantees a spot and first round bye for whoever wins the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 conferences. Meaning if FSU does win the ACC again, there will be no denying them a spot this time around, and they would have a free pass to the 2nd round (8 teams left). Those same Vegas books give FSU the 9th best odds to win the National Championship, behind Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, Michigan, and Ole Miss. 

     My honest expectation is that FSU probably isn't going undefeated two years in a row. As great as that would be, they are replacing a lot of talent and experience and odds are they would slip once or twice in a 26 game stretch. That being said, I still think this is a team that will win double digit games and compete for a 2nd straight ACC title. If that does indeed happen, FSU will have an opportunity to secure a playoff spot this time around with an automatic pass to the quarterfinals. Norvell & company want to prove that last year was no fluke and that winning conference championships and being a perennial national title contender are the new expectations here at FSU. This is a program on the rise and Norvell has shown he knows how to develop talent and win big games. And there is no lack of motivation after the way last season ended. The new regime has built a program capable of winning national titles, the next step will be to actually bring one home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

League: NFL

Head Coach: Todd Bowles (Entering Year 3)

GM: Jason Licht (Entering Year 11)

Last Season's Record: 10-9

Last Season's Result: Lost in Divisional round (round 2)

Best Result Ever: Won Super Bowl (2003, 2021)

     

     Recapping last season

     All things considered, Bucs fans should be pretty happy with the way the 2023-24 season panned out. Tom Brady retired (for real this time) and the team had minimal cap space to sign new players, largely because they still owed Brady $35 million. Expectations were low and many experts pegged the Bucs as a bottom 5 team. But Tampa did ultimately exceed expectations and silenced the doubters by winning the NFC South division for a 3rd straight year and then winning a playoff game.

     How did Tampa manage to remain successful amidst losing the GOAT and having barely any cap room? It all began with finding a low budget QB worth rolling the dice on, and that man was Baker Mayfield. The Bucs signed Mayfield to a cheap 1 year contract, something that would have allowed to extend him if he performed well, but also something that served as a short-term commitment in case the team wanted to go a different direction the following season. Essentially this was a 1 year prove it deal, and fortunately for both parties Mayfield did indeed prove it. 

     It also helped that the NFC South remained a weak division. The Panthers ended up being the worst team in football, the Falcons were still bad, and the Saints were average. Still, securing this division came down to the final game. All Tampa needed to do was beat the lowly Carolina Panthers, and fortunately they ended up doing so in a low-scoring 9-0 snoozefest where the only points came off of 3 Tampa field goals. Had Tampa lost that game, New Orleans would have won the division and the Bucs would have missed the playoffs, and I can almost guarantee Bowles & Licht would have been fired and Mayfield would not have been brought back and Tampa would have torn everything down and began a rebuild.

     Fortunately for them, that's not how it went down. The Bucs did win the game, and in turn the division, which set up a first round match up at home against Philadelphia, a team that was on a downward spiral. Tampa was able to take advantage of the floundering Eagles and roll to a 32-9 victory in the Wild Card round. This set up a round 2 match up in Detroit, who had just won its first playoff game since the early 90's. It was a back and forth game, but ultimately the Lions kept their special season going and sent the Bucs packing.

     The Super Bowl would have been unrealistic, but the Bucs ultimately proved this was not a team living in Tom Brady's shadow, and that even without him they would remain a relevant contender. Much doubt was cast on them entering the season, and they overachieved and proved many had judged them wrongly. 

     Recapping Free Agency and the Draft

     Tampa entered Free Agency in March with the goal of keeping the band together as Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Antoine Winfield were all free agents who would be coveted by other teams and demand big salaries. Mayfield had proven to be a serviceable QB worthy of making much more than he did last season and a longer commitment , Winfield was arguably the best Safety in football and only 25 years old, and even at his older age Evans was still producing and the organization still had the goal of having his career end where it began on the Gulf Coast as a Buc for life. In the end, all 3 were retained. Mayfield was inked to a 3 year deal worth up to $115 million, Evans signed on for 2 more years for $52 million, and Winfield was rewarded with a 4 year $82 million contract. Additionally the Bucs kept defensive captain and 12 year veteran Levonte David on a 1 year $9 million deal. Like Evans, David has spent his entire career with Tampa and the Bucs wish to keep it that way. Tampa also retained kicker Chase McLaughlin, who also was on a 1 year prove-it deal last season and went 29/31 on field goal attempts and did not miss an extra point. Finally, with the little money that remained, the Bucs brought back an old friend, Jordan Whitehead, a Safety who played for the Bucs from 2018-2021 before spending two seasons with the Jets.

     To make the money work for Mayfield, Evans, and Winfield, someone did need to be moved, and the Bucs opted to trade Carlton Davis III, who was one of the starting corners for the past several seasons. Davis played an integral role guarding the opposing teams' best wide receiver each game, a responsibility he shared with Jamel Dean, who is still on the roster. Davis was set to become a free agent next season and Tampa felt Dean could promoted to the full-time role of guarding the best receivers. So Davis and his contract were traded to the Detroit Lions, which helped Tampa get back under the salary cap and the Bucs also received Detroit's 3rd round pick.

     Then in April the draft had arrived, and the Bucs owned the 26th overall pick. Tampa used the selection on Graham Barton, an interior offensive lineman with high upside. Barton should help Tampa shore up an o-line that struggled in run blocking and provide Mayfield with some additional pass protection. Tampa's next pick was at 57 where they selected Chris Braswell, an athletic linebacker from Alabama who should help with the pass-rush and pressuring opposing QB's. The Bucs then had two 3rd round picks (their own, and the one they acquired from Detroit for the Davis trade), which were used on Tykee Smith, a defensive back from Georgia, and Jalen McMillan, a Wide Receiver from Washington. Smith helps address the need in the secondary from trading away Davis while McMillan provides depth to a receiver group looking for a true third option behind Evans and Chris Godwin, and may have a chance to grow into a larger role down the road as those two age. Tampa had 3 picks on the 3rd and final day which were used on a running back, guard, and then tight end. 

     What to expect in 2024

     The big question now is can Tampa make the jump from "good" to "great". They have proved they can compete in their division and in playoff games, but can this group take the next step and become an actual championship contender? Or was last season a bit of a fluke with some good fortune? 2024 will be telling.

     Naturally it starts with the division. Atlanta has a chance to be a much larger threat by adding Kirk Cousins to an offense that has good pass catchers and running backs but was hindered by poor QB play before Cousins' arrival. It still feels like New Orleans will be in the mix as well, as aforementioned they finished with the same 9-8 record as Tampa last year but tiebreakers gave the Bucs the division. I still expect Carolina to be behind the rest as they are still rebuilding. The Vegas books actually have Atlanta as the favorite to win this division, with Tampa having slightly better odds than New Orleans. So if the Bucs are to win a 4th straight division title, it will have to be as an underdog. Even if the Bucs win the division, or get in as a wild card, we have to look at the bigger picture of the NFC. Is Tampa truly good enough to jump teams like San Francisco or Detroit?

     The Bucs offense was really clicking in the 2nd half of last season, but offensive coordinator Dave Canales was rewarded for his good coaching by being offered the head coaching job of the Panthers. To replace him, the Bucs hired Liam Coen, who was formerly an offensive coordinator for the Rams and worked with Mayfield previously there. It will be interesting to see if the Bucs offense can emulate the same success with Coen as they experienced with Canales.

     The honest truth is I expect this year's Bucs to be similar to last years: a fringe playoff team that will have close to an equal number of wins and losses and a team that will compete for its Division, but a team that's still behind the league's elite teams. Perhaps I'm wrong, and the Bucs found something in the 2nd half of last season, when they won 7 of their final 9 games before falling to Detroit, that they can carry over into 2024. Tampa's ceiling is a double digit team that wins its division and wins multiple playoff games. Its floor is like a 7 win team that misses the playoffs and contemplates a rebuild. The reality is they're most likely somewhere in between. 

Tampa Bay Lightning

League: NHL

Head Coach: Jon Cooper (Entering Year 13 )

GM: Julien Brisebois (Entering Year 7)

Last Season's Record: 45-29-8

Last Season's Result: Eliminated in Round 1

Best Result Ever: Won Stanley Cup (2004, 2020, 2021)

     2024 Recap

     For the second straight season, the Lightning's season ended with a first round exit. This time it was at the hands their in-state rival Florida Panthers in 5 games. The Lightning dug themselves into a 3 games to 0 hole, then managed to win Game 4 at home to avoid the sweep, and then ultimately lost Game 5 after having multiple goals questionably taken away from them by the officials. 

     Their regular season was nothing out of the ordinary. They finished 6th (out of 16) in the Eastern Conference, and did just enough to make the playoffs without overexerting themselves, which is the exact same thing they had done the 3 seasons before this one, two of which they reached the Stanley Cup Final, one of which they won it. Factor in that they were without Vasilevskiy the first month and it took him some time to find his form upon returning, as well as the fact that they were without Mikhail Sergachev, one of their top defensemen, for more than half the season due to a broken Fibula and Tibia, and this sort of regular season should have been somewhat expected. It's an aging group whose goal was to be a fresh as possible once the playoffs began. Their seed, match up, and whether or not they have home ice is arbitrary to them. 

     But a second consecutive first-round exit does leave some questions about how much longer this championship window could remain open for Tampa. It's a window that's been open the last 6 years or so, but the core is aging, and there have been a number of salary-cap-casualties over that timespan, and there's a lack of young talent and draft equity since the Lightning were consistently trading away draft picks to bring in win-now players at the trade deadline each year. Eventually that combination of Father Time, big contracts, and lack of young blood catches up with a team.

      That's not to say though that the window is closed today. When healthy, Vasilevskiy is still one of the best goaltenders in hockey. Nikita Kucherov is an MVP candidate still in his prime who is going to finish either 2nd or 3rd in MVP voting. Despite their ages, Steven Stamkos (34) and Victor Hedman (33) continue to make an impact both on and off the ice. And there's still a group of talented players still in their 20's under contract for multiple years with Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, Eric Cernak, Nick Paul, and Brandon Hagel. The depth may be lacking a bit, and the lack of salary cap room makes that hard to address, but the roster is still loaded with front-end talent and championship experience.

Offseason Preview

     Whether the offseason is a success or not for the Lightning depends solely on if they can re-sign Steven Stamkos, who is a free agent but has spent the entirety of his 16 year career in Tampa Bay. Even at 34 years old, Stamkos has still been an impact player and scored the 3rd most goals for the team this season (behind Point and Kucherov), and no one scores more on the Power Play than he does. But perhaps more importantly, he is the captain of the team and has been since 2014. He is someone the rest of the players on the roster respect immensely and play hard for, and they are proud to have him lead them into battle. 

     Tampa has seen a lot of players from their championship core move on over the years due to being unable to afford them any longer, but in all honestly I do believe Stamkos is coming back. He has spent 16 years here and in many ways is the heart and soul of the team. Even outside of hockey, Tampa is where he got married and started a family and the Stamkos family has put roots down in the area over the past several years. Would he really leave all that behind just to chase a slightly higher contract or a better opportunity for another Stanley Cup? It's clear that there's mutual interest between Stamkos and the Bolts to have his career end where it started: here in the Bay. My gut says they make it happen.

     Tampa also has made one trade so far this offseason and it involves a familiar face. The Bolts acquired defenseman Ryan McDonagh from the Nashville Predators for a pair of draft picks. McDonagh played for Tampa from 2018-2022, and was an integral piece of the defense during the Stanley Cup runs. McDonagh will provide a boost to Tampa's defense, which badly needed it, as well as another veteran presence that can provide mentorship to Tampa's younger defensive players. 

     After acquiring McDonagh, the Bolts have about 4.5 million in cap space and most if not all of it will be needed for Stamkos' new contract. Tampa has two other free agents, Anthony Duclair and Matt Dumba that were a part of the main rotation that they probably will be unable to retain if Stamkos re-signs. Both were acquired at the trade deadline to help the team with its playoff push, but both were more than likely rentals for that season only. Duclair was actually pretty productive as a forward and helped Tampa generate more offense, but he could probably fetch more money elsewhere. Dumba was less impactful, but moreso there to fill a need as Tampa was incredibly thin on defense after Sergachev's injury.

     If the team wasn't able to retain Stamkos, that would change everything. They had better have some Plan B's and C's lined up to spend that money on. It would also mean appointing a new captain. Hedman and Kucherov served as assistant captains so naturally those would be the two most likely options, but Hedman has been in the role longer, which may give him the edge.  

     As of right now, the Lightning don't have a draft pick until round 4 this year (they have a 4th, a 5th, a 6th, and three 7ths). As aforementioned, they've been shipping out picks regularly to trade for veterans that help them make Stanley Cup pushes, as a matter of fact they don't have their 2025 first or second round pick either, they've only had one first-rounder since 2020. Things could always change, last season they traded Ross Colton for a 2nd round pick right before the draft, but for now the Lightning won't pick until pick # 125. 

     What to expect in 2024-25

     A lot of the same. Assuming Stamkos returns, this roster isn't going to be much different from last year's, aside from losing Duclair and Dumba and the addition of McDonough. But in theory defense and goaltending will be improved.

     The biggest difference could be having Vasilevskiy and Sergachev available for the full year. Vasy missed the first 20 games of the season, and Tampa only won 9 of those in his absence. Conversely, when he was in net they went 30-22. Factor in that the first month or so back from injury he was still knocking the rust off and re-finding his form and re-adjusting to the speed and intensity of an NHL game. With Vasy healthy for a full season, Tampa in theory could win more games and secure a higher seed. 

     The same could be said for Sergachev, who when healthy averages the 2nd most ice-time per game on the roster (behind Hedman). Sergachev, Hedman, and Cernak anchor the Tampa defense, but Sergachev being out put too much weight on the shoulders on the other two, and then forced Tampa to play younger, less-experienced defensemen when Hedman, Cernak, or both were off the ice. Dumba was essentially brought in to fill in for Sergachev, but that's a massive drop off. Getting Sergachev back and reuniting with McDonagh, who was a shutdown defensemen duting his original stint in Tampa, gives the Bolts 4 quality defensemen, after going through most of last season with only two. Defense was Tampa's biggest weakness last season, but it will almost assuredly be improved this year.

     Offensively, as long as Stamkos comes back it's fair to assume Tampa will still be fine. Stamkos, Kucherov, and Point will continue to be primary goal scorers with secondary contributions from Cirelli, Hagel, and Paul. Duclair was efficient offensively as well but as aforementioned if Stamkos re-signs it's hard to imagine the Lightning having enough money to keep Duclair in the Bay as well.

     The Bolts play in the Atlantic Division along with 7 other teams. This includes the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Boston Bruins, all of whom seem to be good every year and all of whom finished ahead of Tampa this season. But as long as Tampa can stay ahead of the other 4 members, the Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, and Buffalo Sabres, they'll still place top 4 in their division which should, in theory, make a return to the playoffs likely. 

    All in all, I expect next year to look fairly similar to the past few. Tampa will do just enough to finish towards the middle of the standings and clinch a playoff spot without overworking itself. Hopefully this time around the playoff run continues past the first round. This group's title window isn't going to be open forever, but hopefully there's at least one more deep run left in them before the window closes.

 Orlando Magic

 League: NBA
  Head Coach: Jamahl Mosley (Entering Year 4)
  GM: Anthony Parker (Entering Year 2)
  Last Seasons' Record: 47-35
  Last Seasons' Result: Eliminated in Round 1
  Best Result Ever: Reached NBA Finals (1995, 2009)

     2024 Recap     

     Much like the Bucs, the Magic feel like a team that exceeded expectations in 2024. My personal expectation was around 41 wins, and finishing somewhere toward the middle of the Eastern Conference and contending for a playoff spot, probably winding up in the play-in tournament itself (meaning finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th). In reality, Orlando would win 47 games and place 5th in the East, and they were 2 quarters away from winning Game 7 on the road in Cleveland and advancing to the 2nd round of the Playoffs. 

     This young group continues to ascend. Two years ago they only won 22 games, which was 2nd worst in the league. Last year that number jumped to 34, still not good enough for a playoff spot but significantly better than the year prior. And then this year the win total increased by a similar amount. It could have been possibly even higher if not for a mid-season injury bug where the team was without several players and went through a slump, before heating up again after the All-Star break. Securing a playoff spot and avoiding the play-in tournament did come down to the final game of the regular season, and fortunately Orlando put an absolutely smackdown on the Milwaukee Bucks to secure the team's first playoff birth since 2020. 

     Making the playoffs in general was a massive milestone for the Magic, and no matter what happened the experience would be invaluable, but we were all eager to see what would unfold once they got there. Orlando was matched up with the 4th seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs would win the first two games at home by double digits, and for a second it seemed like the series may be a short one. But then the team returned to the Kia Center for Games 3 and 4 and dominated on their home floor and would win those games by a whopping combined 61 points, to even the series at 2-2. The series then returned to Cleveland for a big Game 5, which Cleveland squeaked out by a single point, 104-103, forcing a do-or-die Game 6 for the Magic back in Orlando. Much like Game 5, Game 6 was a competitive back-and-forth game but once again the home team won as Orlando came from behind in the 4th quarter and fought off elimination to force a decisive winner-take-all Game 7. The Magic started the game well, and would jump out to an 18 point lead in the first half. But then Cleveland came storming back and ultimately won the game and the series, depriving Orlando of its first playoff-series win since 2010.

     Losing the series, especially given how the final game unfolded, was always going to sting, but there are still so many positives to be taken away from the newly gained playoff experience. Firstly, it would have been easy after losing the first two games by double digits to not come back and just unravel and allow the series to be a short one. But Orlando would not go quietly into the night and fought back. Secondly, the Magic were faced with a win-or-go-home game in Game 6, which can be a lot of pressure for a young inexperienced group, but once more Orlando showed good composure and poise and did not allow the moment to get too big for them, and they found a way to protect home court and push the series to the very end.

     In the end, Orlando made a name for themselves and gained the national recognition it rightfully earned and deserved. Paolo Banchero made the All-Star team as a 21 year old and Jalen Suggs made the NBA all-defensive team as a 22 year old. Those two, plus Franz Wagner, who is also only 22, represent Orlando's young core. Further forming that young nucleus is Jonathan Isaac (26 years old), Wendell Carter (25), Cole Anthony (24), and Anthony Black (20). In fact the only two players in the main rotation over 30 this season were Gary Harris and Joe Ingles. They showed enough promise in the playoffs for other stars to take notice of what's brewing in Orlando, which we'll get into more in the offseason section. This is a young team on the rise, spearheaded by three players 22 or younger who will only continue to get better. And I think it's fair to say, for the first time since the Dwight Howard era, the Magic are back.

     Offseason Preview

      Unlike the Lightning and Bucs, Orlando has money to spend in free agency, money that can be used for more than keeping its own players. The Magic are projected to have about $40 million in cap space, which is 5th highest in the entire league and 3rd highest among playoff teams. The consensus seems to be Orlando's biggest needs are 3 point shooters and a floor general who can help facilitate offensively. The Magic also own the 18th and 47th overall picks in the 2024 draft next month. Orlando also has the assets and cap space to explore the trade market if they can find a player and deal that works to their benefit.

     Internal

     It's probably easiest to begin with the players under contract for next season. This includes Banchero, Franz Wagner, Suggs, Isaac, Anthony, Carter Jr., Black, and then developmental players Jett Howard, and Caleb Houstan. The only way any of those players wouldn't be on the roster next season is if they were traded. Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs are probably untouchable, the rest would be a "only for the right price" situation.

     That means the following Magic players are free agents: Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Joe Ingles, Morritz Wagner, and Goga Bitadze. Wagner and Ingles have what's called a "Team Option", where the Magic can pick up their contract next year for a pre-determined price. The others are what's called "Unrestricted", meaning Orlando has no control and the player can sign with any team they choose, including re-signing with the Magic.

     Starting with the Team Option guys, it would only cost $8 million to bring back Wagner, which is a fair price for a guy who has been a reliable backup center and whose brother is on the team. On the other hand, Ingles would cost $11 million, and he's probably worth less than half that as an older player whose role is really only to shoot 3's and be a mentor to the younger guys. So I think Orlando will decline Ingles' Team Option, but then still attempt to re-sign him at a cheaper price.

     Moving on to the unrestricted free agents, there's a path where none of the 3 are coming back. Fultz is probably the biggest toss up of the group. Originally a starter, Fultz was relegated to a back up role this season, largely due to injury history and his inability to develop a perimeter shot. Before the playoffs happened, I would have wagered Fultz had played his final game in a Magic jersey, however Fultz played surprisingly well in the playoffs. The pro's of Fultz's game are his athleticism and ability to score at the rim, his mid-range shooting, his ability to facilitate, and his bigger wing-span for a guard makes him a solid defensive player. That being said, Fultz made $17 million last season and if Orlando did bring him back I think it would be for a lower price. Fultz may want to explore his options and see if other teams out there would match or exceed his prior salary. Harris, who was making $13 million, has probably played his last game as a member of the Magic. Bitadze is dependent on what happens with Orlando's other big men (Isaac, Carter, M. Wagner). If all 3 return, which I think is likely, Bitadze may not, but if one gets traded or Wagner isn't re-signed, then there's a path for Bitadze to return as a bench player.

     External

     Now that we've addressed things internally, we get to the fun part: going shopping for players the Magic can try to lure to Orlando. As aforementioned, Orlando is in the market for perimeter shooters as well as a floor-general type point guard who can facilitate and help get things organized and run the offense. That's not to say the Magic will limit themselves to those needs. Should an elite talent become available for the right price, Orlando should absolutely pounce.

     The biggest Free Agent the Magic have been linked to is Paul George. George currently plays for Los Angeles Clippers and is a scoring wing. In his prime he was probably a top 5 player in the NBA, and he checks a lot of boxes for the Magic with his perimeter shooting and scoring ability as well as his length and defensive play. George is 34 now and looking for one last big contract and an opportunity to compete for a championship, which he has not yet won or even reached. Orlando has definite interest,  but only for the right price and number of years. If George is hoping for a max-deal, something around 4 years and 200 million, that probably doesn't make sense with Orlando's plans, especially seeing as George would be 38 at the end of that contract. But for less years/less money/both this is a partnership that could make sense for both sides. But the Magic would have some hefty competition for George's services. The Clippers would obviously like to re-sign him, and the 76ers, Heat, and Knicks are all reportedly in the mix as well.

     Another big name Orlando is monitoring is Klay Thompson. Also 34 years old, Thompson is one of the best 3-point shooters in NBA history and a 4 time NBA Champion as a key member of the Golden State Warriors dynasty which won 4 titles in 8 years from 2015 to 2022. Golden State is hopeful to bring Klay back, which does seem fairly likely, however if they are unable to then Orlando may be the most likely destination, seeing as his biggest strength fills Orlando's biggest need. Adding Thompson would also help with spacing, as defenses would be unable to leave him open, which would take double teams off of players like Banchero and Wagner and give them more room to drive and attack the rim with the middle less congested. While this contract wouldn't be cheap, it would be substantially lower than Geroge's.

     Alternatively, Orlando may look for Free Agents who fit their current identity: guys in their mid 20's still reaching their full potential who can grow with the core, who thus come at a more temperate price. Tyus Jones of the Washington Wizards is someone linked to Orlando for the aforementioned "floor-general" role. Jones has one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the league, meaning he takes care of the ball and find open teammates and creates good opportunities for them to score. Adding a player like Jones allows Banchero/Wagner/Suggs to remain the team's primary scorers but in theory should make life easier for all of them.

     Malik Monk of the Sacramento Kings is another often mentioned name who plays the same position as Jones (point guard) who fills a lot of Orlando's needs. Monk is a better scorer than Jones but Jones is a stronger passer. But either player would boost Orlando's perimeter shooting. There's also a bevy of cheaper 3 point specialists like Buddy Hield, Malik Beasley, or Luke Kennard that the team could pursue. 

     Orlando could also explore the trade market, as there are some good players who aren't free agents but could be acquired via trade. This can happen for a variety of reasons like teams wanting to rebuild by acquiring younger players and draft picks, or teams needing to dump salary to comply with the salary cap, or disgruntled players who just aren't happy in their current situation and want out. The con is, unlike free agents, these require Orlando to give something up, either current players or draft picks or both. There are some names floating around in rumors like Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, and Anfernee Simons who probably could make Orlando better, it's just a matter of what the asking price is and if Orlando is comfortable with giving up assets. 

     Lastly, the Magic do own the 18th overall pick in the NBA draft, which happens June 26, and how they utilize this pick can go a lot of different ways: a 3 point shooter, a facilitator, a scoring wing, a rim protecting big man, etc. With the pick being in the back half of the first round, it's likely this will be either an older prospect who can help immediately as a depth piece, or a younger mystery-box type of developmental player with high upside who might spend the first year or two not in Orlando's main rotation. I also think trading away this pick is on the table, if the right situation presented itself. Especially seeing as the Magic already have a few young projects on the team in Anthony Black, Jett Howard, and Caleb Houstan. 

     What to Expect in 2024-25

     To be even better than they were this past season. Even if no roster changes occurred, it's reasonable to expect the Magic would improve internally as the young players continue to inch closer to their primes and are only beginning to scratch the surface of their potential. But that being said there is also money available to add key pieces to this roster. Goals such as 50+ wins, a top 3 seed in the East, and making (at least) the 2nd round of the playoffs are all completely realistic and attainable.

     It's an important offseason for the front office, as they're going to make some key decisions on how to allocate their cap space and assets that will largely dictate what the next 3 to 4 years look like in Orlando. If they commit a large amount of money and years to a new contract for someone, they better have done their due diligence and be confident in it as you only get a couple shots at this. And it's important to navigate the finances in such a way where they still have money to give Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs large contracts when they become extension eligible, while simultaneously proving to those players that they're committed to making moves that secure Orlando's present and future plans.

     My assumption is Orlando is going to spend and make some moves to bring in some individuals that will further help improve the team, especially while their stars are still on affordable rookie contracts. I think they're getting one out of Monk/Jones and then adding an affordable perimeter shooter or two. If that happens and everyone stays healthy, I would predict that Orlando wins even more games than it did last season, which would in theory position itself for a top 3 or 4 seed in the East. That would make reaching Round 2 super attainable, with winning 1 more round and reaching the Eastern Conference Finals also in the realm of possibility. Then I think the title window would be open for Orlando starting in the 25-26 season, and that it would stay open for several years to come.

     The key piece to all of this is Paolo Banchero. There is no present or future for Orlando without him. While it is a team sport, every championship winning team needs a superstar to help lead them there. The Magic have not had one of that caliber since Dwight Howard until now. Banchero has had a meteoric rise in his first two seasons, winning Rookie of the Year in year 1, and then making the All Star team and leading Orlando to the playoffs in year 2. There's a world where he is a future MVP candidate who can help bring Orlando its first ever NBA Championship.

     There's no denying this is a young team on the rise. As the team grows, so do the expectations. It has still been 14 years since the Magic have won a playoff series, but it feels like the end of that long drought is near. The future looks mighty bright, and it will be exciting to continue to watch this group grow and attempt to build it's way to the mountain top.