Current State of Things (2024 Edition)
A little over a year ago, I wrote the inaugural edition of this annual piece. That version covered the 4 teams pictured above, as well as the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, FSU Basketball, Tennessee Titans, and Seattle Kraken. For 2024, I wanted to narrow that group to the 4 teams we follow more avidly than all the others, and spend a little more time on each than what was done last year when there were 9 different teams to recap. Meaning for this year, we're restricting to the Seminoles, Buccaneers, Lightning, and Magic.
All 4 were successful in their own ways. The 3 pro-teams were all playoff teams and FSU was a top-5 team when healthy. It would be equally fair to say none of them were satisfied with the way things ended. FSU was snubbed of a playoff spot it rightfully earned after losing it's QB to a gruesome injury. The Bucs' season came to an end when Baker Mayfield through a game-sealing interception against the Detroit Lions on a last-minute drive that would have tied the game and forced overtime. The Lightning fell in the first round for a second straight season, losing to their in-state rival Florida in 5 games, and having two goals disallowed in the final game that sealed their fate. And the Magic blew an 18 point lead in a decisive Game 7 against the Cleveland Cavaliers that would have advanced them to round 2. None of these seasons should be considered a failure, yet all of them had the potential to go deeper. Cue the cliche "There's always next year!" phrase of optimism.
So now all 4 teams turn their heads to the 2024-25 seasons. For the football teams the bulk of the roster reconstruction is complete, and the focus shifts to the actual training and preparation for the season. Conversely, the Lightning and Magic will have both Free Agency and the Draft this summer to attempt to add pieces to the roster that will improve the team moving forward. I'll recap the offseasons for the Noles and Bucs and discuss the expectations and goals for next season, and I'll preview the offseasons for the Bolts and Magic and talk about the big decisions that loom and the ways they could look to improve the team.
What I love about restricting to these 4 teams as well is that they represent our past, present, and future. Florida State represents our college years, the Tampa teams represent where we met and the beginning of our journey, and Orlando represents where we got engaged and married and began to build our life together. We've also seen all 4 live together, most of them multiple times. (By my count: 1 FSU game, 3 Bucs games, 3 Lightning games, and 3 Magic games).
It's a long march between now and late August, so without further to do, here is the 2024 offseason primer:
Recapping last season
It's unfortunate that this season will always be remembered for the playoff snub (still not over it) because that aside FSU's 2023 season was a roaring success. The Seminoles went 13-0 for only the 3rd time in school history, won the ACC for the first time since 2014, and beat Clemson for the first time in 10 years as well. At full health, this team was a bona fide national title contender. Unfortunately, that dream was stripped from them from a group of individuals who selfishly wanted the perceived "best" match ups and determined they had enough game evidence to determine FSU would not be competitive without Jordan Travis, who suffered a gruesome season-ending leg injury in the 11th game of the season against North Alabama. Despite this, the Noles were still able to defeat arch rival Florida in the Swamp with a back up QB, and then defeat Louisville in the ACC Championship game the following week with a 3rd string QB. After the playoff snub, the Seminoles drew Georgia in the Orange Bowl. Around 30 FSU players opted to sit out of the game, which led to a 63-3 thrashing as Georgia's roster of All-American talent dominated FSU's inexperienced group.
Despite this, it's undeniable that Mike Norvell has this group headed in the right direction. Over his first 4 seasons, the Seminoles went from 3 wins, to 5, to 10, to 13. This was evident to the rest of the country as well as Alabama aggressively pursued Mike Norvell for their head coaching vacancy when Nick Saban retired. Fortunately for us, Mike is a Seminole through and through, and his loyalty was rewarded with a massive extension and raise.
Recapping Transfer Portal and Recuiting
It's fair to say this was an even more entertaining offseason than usual for FSU. In addition to the usual business of the transfer portal and high school recruiting, the Noles also filed a lawsuit against the ACC in hopes of forcing their way out and as aforementioned Alabama made a hard push to pry Norvell away from Tallahassee.
The landscape of college football is drastically changing, with two true power conferences forming. The already strong SEC is adding Texas and Oklahoma this season, and the Big 10 is adding some West Coast powerhouse programs like USC, Oregon, and Washington. FSU sees what's happening and wants to be a part of it, however their contract with the ACC runs through 2036 and would require a massive buyout to break the contract. FSU is by far the ACC's biggest moneymaker and for that reason the ACC has no interest in letting them off the hook early. Clemson has also filed lawsuits against the conference for the same reasons and motivations as FSU. This is likely to be a long and dragged out process with no resolution coming in the near future.
FSU also had the unenvious task of replacing a plethora of departing talent, which includes 15 players now in the NFL. Fortunately between both the transfer portal and high school recruitment, FSU did all it could to fill these holes. They added 17 transfers in total, including 5 from Alabama who entered the portal following Saban's retirement. This included DJ Uiagelelei, the likely starting QB this season who spent two seasons at Clemson and 1 season at Oregon. DJ is no Jordan Travis, but he does bring a wealth of experience, and his larger NFL-like frame makes him less susceptible to injuries than Travis was. Regardless, FSU desperately needed to add an experienced QB, as Brock Glenn was the only one on the roster with actual game experience since Travis graduated and Rodemaker transferred. Bur FSU did well to load up in the transfer portal and address many of it's needs, which also included running back, wide receiver, linebackers, offensive lineman, edge rushers, and defensive backs.
FSU also brought in a talented group of 23 high school players to be developed over the next few years, which ranked as the 12th best class in the country. Perhaps most notably Luke Kromenhoek, the 4th highest ranked QB in the country. It would seem the plan is for DJ to start at QB this season, to then have Glenn and Kromenhoek compete for the starting job for 2025 and beyond.
What to expect in 2024
Florida State's 2024 campaign and ACC title defense will begin in Dublin, Ireland on August 24 against Georgia Tech. The schedule will then consist of 7 more ACC opponents, including annual arch-rivals Miami and Clemson, and then 4 non-conference games against Florida, Notre Dame, Memphis, and Charleston Southern. I expect they would be the favorite in every game except for the road game at Notre Dame, with Clemson being a toss up game as well but I expect FSU to be a slight favorite with homefield advantage. According to Las Vegas sportsbooks, FSU currently has slightly better odds than Clemson to win the ACC Championship, with Miami. NC State, and Louisville having the next best odds. I still like FSU's chances ahead of Clemson's though. Clemson is a program that peaked from 2012 to 2021, but has seen a slow decline over the past few seasons, whereas FSU is ascending.
The good news for FSU is the playoff is expanding to 12 teams in 2024, which also guarantees a spot and first round bye for whoever wins the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 conferences. Meaning if FSU does win the ACC again, there will be no denying them a spot this time around, and they would have a free pass to the 2nd round (8 teams left). Those same Vegas books give FSU the 10th best odds to win the National Championship, behind Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, Michigan, Ole Miss, and Penn State.
My honest expectation is that FSU probably isn't going undefeated two years in a row. As great as that would be, they are replacing a lot of talent and experience and odds are they would slip once or twice in a 26 game stretch. That being said, I still believe this is a team that will win double digit games and compete for a 2nd straight ACC title. If that does indeed happen, FSU will have an opportunity to secure a playoff spot this time around with an automatic pass to the quarterfinals. Norvell & company want to prove that last year was no fluke and that winning conference championships and being a perennial national title contender are the new expectations here at FSU. This is a program on the rise and Norvell has shown he knows how to develop talent and win big games. And there is no lack of motivation after the way last season ended. The new regime has built a program capable of winning national titles, the next step will be to actually bring one home.
Recapping last season
All things considered, Bucs fans should be pretty happy with the way the 2023-24 season panned out. Tom Brady retired (for real this time) and the team had minimal cap space to sign new players, largely because they still owed Brady $35 million. Expectations were low and many experts pegged the Bucs as a bottom 5 team. But Tampa did ultimately exceed expectations and silenced the doubters by winning the NFC South division for a 3rd straight year and then winning a playoff game.
How did Tampa manage to remain successful amidst losing the GOAT and having barely any cap room? It all began with finding a low budget QB worth rolling the dice on, and that man was Baker Mayfield. The Bucs signed Mayfield to a cheap 1 year contract, something that would have allowed Tampa to extend him if he performed well, but also something that served as a short-term commitment in case the team wanted to go a different direction the following season. Essentially this was a 1 year prove it deal, and fortunately for both parties Mayfield did indeed prove it.
It also helped that the NFC South remained a weak division. The Panthers ended up being the worst team in football, the Falcons were still bad, and the Saints were average. Still, securing this division came down to the final game. All Tampa needed to do was beat the lowly Carolina Panthers, and fortunately they ended up doing so in a low-scoring 9-0 snoozefest where the only points came off of 3 Tampa field goals. Had Tampa lost that game, New Orleans would have won the division and the Bucs would have missed the playoffs, and I can almost guarantee Bowles & Licht would have been fired and Mayfield would not have been brought back and Tampa would have torn everything down and began a rebuild.
Fortunately for them, that's not how it went down. The Bucs did win the game, and in turn the division, which set up a first round match up at home against Philadelphia, a team that was on a downward spiral. Tampa was able to take advantage of the floundering Eagles and roll to a 32-9 victory in the Wild Card round. This set up a round 2 match up in Detroit, who had just won its first playoff game since the early 90's. It was a back and forth game, but ultimately the Lions kept their special season going and sent the Bucs packing.
The Super Bowl would have been unrealistic, but the Bucs ultimately proved this was not a team living in Tom Brady's shadow, and that even without him they would remain a relevant contender. Much doubt was cast on them entering the season, and they overachieved and proved that many had judged them wrongly.
Recapping Free Agency and the Draft
Tampa entered Free Agency in March with the goal of keeping the band together as Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Antoine Winfield were all free agents who would be coveted by other teams and demand big salaries. Mayfield had proven to be a serviceable QB worthy of making much more than he did last season and a longer commitment, Winfield was arguably the best Safety in football and only 25 years old, and even at his older age Evans was still producing and the organization still had the goal of having his career end where it began on the Gulf Coast as a Buc for life. In the end, all 3 were retained. Mayfield was inked to a 3 year deal worth up to $115 million, Evans signed on for 2 more years for $52 million, and Winfield was rewarded with a 4 year $82 million contract. Additionally the Bucs kept defensive captain and 12 year veteran Lavonte David on a 1 year $9 million deal. Like Evans, David has spent his entire career with Tampa and the Bucs wish to keep it that way. Tampa also retained kicker Chase McLaughlin, who also was on a 1 year prove-it deal last season and went 29/31 on field goal attempts and did not miss an extra point. Finally, with the little money that remained, the Bucs brought back an old friend, Jordan Whitehead, a Safety who played for the Bucs from 2018-2021 before spending two seasons with the Jets.
To make the money work for Mayfield, Evans, and Winfield, someone did need to be moved, and the Bucs opted to trade Carlton Davis III, who was one of the starting corners (players who guard the wide receivers and try to deflect and intercept passes) for the past several seasons. Davis played an integral role guarding the opposing teams' best receiver each game, a responsibility he shared with Jamel Dean, who is still on the roster. Davis was set to become a free agent next season and Tampa felt Dean could promoted to the full-time role of guarding the best receivers. So Davis and his contract were traded to the Detroit Lions, which helped Tampa get back under the salary cap and the Bucs also received Detroit's 3rd round pick.
Then in April the draft had arrived, and the Bucs owned the 26th overall pick. Tampa used the selection on Graham Barton, an interior offensive lineman with high upside. Barton should help Tampa shore up an o-line that struggled in run blocking and provide Mayfield with some additional pass protection. Tampa's next pick was at 57 where they selected Chris Braswell, an athletic linebacker from Alabama who should help with the pass-rush and pressuring opposing QB's. The Bucs then had two 3rd round picks (their own, and the one they acquired from Detroit for the Davis trade), which were used on Tykee Smith, a defensive back from Georgia, and Jalen McMillan, a Wide Receiver from Washington. Smith helps address the need in the secondary from trading away Davis while McMillan provides depth to a receiver group looking for a true third option behind Evans and Chris Godwin, and may have a chance to grow into a larger role down the road as those two age. Tampa had 3 picks on the 3rd and final day which were used on a running back, guard, and then tight end.
What to expect in 2024
The big question now is can Tampa make the jump from "good" to "great". They have proved they can compete in their division and in playoff games, but can this group take the next step and become an actual championship contender? Or was last season a bit of a fluke with some good fortune? 2024 will be telling.
Naturally it starts with the division. Atlanta has a chance to be a much larger threat by adding Kirk Cousins to an offense that already had good pass catchers and running backs but was hindered by poor QB play before Cousins' arrival. It still feels like New Orleans will be in the mix as well, as aforementioned they finished with the same 9-8 record as Tampa last year but tiebreakers gave the Bucs the division. I still expect Carolina to be behind the rest as they are still rebuilding. The Vegas books actually have Atlanta as the favorite to win this division, with Tampa having slightly better odds than New Orleans. So if the Bucs are to win a 4th straight division title, it will have to be as an underdog. Even if the Bucs win the division, or get in as a wild card, we have to look at the bigger picture of the NFC. Is Tampa truly good enough to jump teams like San Francisco or Detroit?
The Bucs offense was really clicking in the 2nd half of last season, but offensive coordinator Dave Canales was rewarded for his good coaching by being offered the head coaching job of the Panthers. To replace him, the Bucs hired Liam Coen, who was formerly an offensive coordinator for the Rams and worked with Mayfield previously there. It will be interesting to see if the Bucs offense can emulate the same success with Coen as they experienced with Canales.
The honest truth is I expect this year's Bucs to be similar to last years: a fringe playoff team that will have close to an equal number of wins and losses and a team that will compete for its Division, but a team that's still behind the league's elite teams. Perhaps I'm wrong, and the Bucs found something in the 2nd half of last season, when they won 7 of their final 9 games before falling to Detroit, that they can carry over into 2024. Tampa's ceiling is a double digit team that wins its division and wins multiple playoff games. Its floor is like a 7 win team that misses the playoffs and contemplates a rebuild. The reality is they're most likely somewhere in between.
Orlando Magic
League: NBA
Head Coach: Jamahl Mosley (Entering Year 4)
GM: Anthony Parker (Entering Year 2)
Last Seasons' Record: 47-35
Last Seasons' Result: Eliminated in Round 1
Best Result Ever: Reached NBA Finals (1995, 2009)
2024 Recap
Much like the Bucs, the Magic feel like a team that exceeded expectations in 2024. My personal expectation was around 41 wins, and finishing somewhere toward the middle of the Eastern Conference and contending for a playoff spot, probably winding up in the play-in tournament itself (meaning finishing somewhere between 7th and 10th). In reality, Orlando would win 47 games and place 5th in the East, and they were 2 quarters away from winning Game 7 on the road in Cleveland and advancing to the 2nd round of the Playoffs.
This young group continues to ascend. Two years ago they only won 22 games, which was 2nd worst in the league. Last year that number jumped to 34, still not good enough for a playoff spot but significantly better than the year prior. And then this year the win total increased by a similar amount. It could have been possibly even higher if not for a mid-season injury bug where the team was without several players and went through a slump, before heating up again after the All-Star break. Securing a playoff spot and avoiding the play-in tournament did come down to the final game of the regular season, and fortunately Orlando put an absolutely smackdown on the Milwaukee Bucks to secure the team's first playoff birth since 2020.
Making the playoffs in general was a massive milestone for the Magic, and no matter what happened the experience would be invaluable, but we were all eager to see what would unfold once they got there. Orlando was matched up with the 4th seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs would win the first two games at home by double digits, and for a second it seemed like the series may be a short one. But then the team returned to the Kia Center for Games 3 and 4 and dominated on their home floor and would win those games by a whopping combined 61 points, to even the series at 2-2. The series then returned to Cleveland for a big Game 5, which Cleveland squeaked out by a single point, 104-103, forcing a do-or-die Game 6 for the Magic back in Orlando. Much like Game 5, Game 6 was a competitive back-and-forth game but once again the home team won as Orlando came from behind in the 4th quarter and fought off elimination to force a decisive winner-take-all Game 7. The Magic started the game well, and would jump out to an 18 point lead in the first half. But then Cleveland came storming back and ultimately won the game and the series, depriving Orlando of its first playoff-series win since 2010.
Losing the series, especially given how the final game unfolded, was always going to sting, but there are still so many positives to be taken away from the newly gained playoff experience. Firstly, it would have been easy after losing the first two games by double digits to not come back and just unravel and allow the series to be a short one. But Orlando would not go quietly into the night and fought back. Secondly, the Magic were faced with a win-or-go-home game in Game 6, which can be a lot of pressure for a young inexperienced group, but once more Orlando showed good composure and poise and did not allow the moment to get too big for them, and they found a way to protect home court and push the series to the very end.
In the end, Orlando made a name for themselves and gained the national recognition it rightfully earned and deserved. Paolo Banchero made the All-Star team as a 21 year old and Jalen Suggs made the NBA all-defensive team as a 22 year old. Those two, plus Franz Wagner, who is also only 22, represent Orlando's young core. Further forming that young nucleus is Jonathan Isaac (26 years old), Wendell Carter (25), Cole Anthony (24), and Anthony Black (20). In fact the only two players in the main rotation over 30 this season were Gary Harris and Joe Ingles. They showed enough promise in the playoffs for other stars to take notice of what's brewing in Orlando, which we'll get into more in the offseason section. This is a young team on the rise, spearheaded by three players 22 or younger who will only continue to get better. And I think it's fair to say, for the first time since the Dwight Howard era, the Magic are back.
Offseason Recap
Unlike the Bucs or Lightning, Orlando entered the offseason with a large amount of cap space and money to spend. But in the end, they only added 1 new member to the team while using the rest of the money to reward some of their own players with new contracts.
Starting with the new addition, the Magic decided to pursue and sign Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. "KCP" as he's called is a good 3-point shooter, which helps address one of Orlando's biggest needs, and he's a stingy perimeter defender, which helps him further contribute to one of Orlando's biggest strengths (defense). He will immediately plug into the starting line up alongside Banchero, Franz, Suggs, and whoever starts at center (probably either Carter or Isaac). Equally importantly, KCP brings championship experience as a role player, having won an NBA title with two different teams (the 2020 LA Lakers and the 2023 Denver Nuggets). KCP knows what it takes and should be able to provide leadership and mentorship to a young Magic roster in this area.
The Magic then had a slew of their own free agents they decided to take care of and bring back to the team for 2024 and beyond which included Moe Wagner, Gary Harris, and Goga Bitadze. All 3 of these players help off the bench, with Moe and Goga providing big-man depth behind Carter and Isaac, while Harris is a smaller more veteran player who can knock down 3's and defend other team's smaller guards. There were only two players who played significant minutes for Orlando last year that the Magic did not end up bringing back: Markelle Fultz, who remains unsigned, and Joe Ingles, who signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Magic also were able to get a pair of contract extensions finalized and signed with players who weren't free agents, but that Orlando wanted to lock up long term and reward with pay-raises before they could become free agents in a future season. This included Franz Wagner and Jonathan Isaac, who both received 5 year deals and more money. Jalen Suggs is also extension-eligible and Orlando will look to sign him to an extension sometime before the season starts.
Lastly, Orlando had the 18th overall pick in the NBA draft, which they used on Tristan da Silva, a 23 year-old wing player from Colorado. Da Silva is an interesting player because he's probably not going to excel in any single area but he can be serviceable or better in just about all of them, making him a balanced and well-rounded player. He can help with 3-point shooting, collect rebounds, play good defense, find open teammates, and has good positional size and length. Da Silva has had a strong summer thus far in the NBA Summer League (a developmental offseason league for 1st and 2nd year players) along with last year's first round picks Anthony Black and Jett Howard.
What to Expect in 2024-25
Hopefully to be even better than they were this past season. Even if no roster changes had occurred, it's reasonable to expect the Magic would improve internally as the young players continue to inch closer to their primes and are only beginning to scratch the surface of their potential. But then factor in adding KCP and da Silva and goals such as 50+ wins, a top 3 seed in the East, and making (at least) the 2nd round of the playoffs are all completely realistic and attainable.
The East is still going to be very competitive with the Boston Celtics entering as the obvious title favorite but teams like the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers making big moves to help them close the gap. Other teams like the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat will benefit from getting star players back from injuries. And we'll see if the Indiana Pacers can build off of last season's surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals. Orlando needs to find itself somewhere inside the top 6 to avoid the play-in tournament and make the playoffs for a second straight season.
The key piece to all of this is Paolo Banchero. There is no present or future for Orlando without him. While it is a team sport, every championship winning team needs a superstar to help lead them there. The Magic have not had one of that caliber since Dwight Howard until now. Banchero has had a meteoric rise in his first two seasons, winning Rookie of the Year in year 1, and then making the All Star team and leading Orlando to the playoffs in year 2. There's a world where he is a future MVP candidate who can help bring Orlando its first ever NBA Championship.
There's no denying this is a young team on the rise. As the team grows, so do the expectations. It has still been 14 years since the Magic have won a playoff series, but it feels like the end of that long drought is near. The future looks mighty bright, and it will be exciting to continue to watch this group grow and attempt to build it's way to the mountain top.
Head Coach: Jamahl Mosley (Entering Year 4)
GM: Anthony Parker (Entering Year 2)
Last Seasons' Record: 47-35
Last Seasons' Result: Eliminated in Round 1
Best Result Ever: Reached NBA Finals (1995, 2009)
In Conclusion
To recap, success in 2024-25 looks differently for each of these teams. For FSU it would be winning the ACC again and making the playoff this time around. For the Bucs it would be building off of last season's surprise success by pursuing another division title and playoff appearance. For the Lightning it would mean getting past the first round of the playoffs and giving this experienced group another chance to make a run at a Stanley Cup. And for the Magic it would mean seeing this young group continue to grow and take steps forward and possibly end it's 14-year playoff series victory drought.
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