Thoughts on FSU/Bucs/Lightning/Magic

 

     The calendar turns to October, one of the best months of the year. It represents everything from pumpkin spice, to spooky season, to Oktoberfest beers, to cooler weather (in most other states). But it's also one of the best months in the sports calendar, as college and pro football season are in full swing, and hockey and basketball kick off their seasons as well (technically baseball playoffs too but I care less about that). 

     Last year I wrote a large piece over the summer on all of our teams, all of which were in the offseason at the time. I never got around to that this summer, so this year we're doing things a little differently and looking at the football teams mid season while previewing the Lightning and Magic right before their own respective seasons begin.

     At this point (October 4), FSU's season will be halfway complete upon completion of the Clemson game, the Buccaneers are just under a third of the way through their regular season following the Falcon game, the Lightning begin their season a week from tonight on October 11 in Carolina, and the Magic are about 2.5 weeks away beginning their season on October 22 in Miami.

     So we'll look at all 4 teams. Starting with FSU we'll examine what the Hell went wrong this season and how fixable it is for 2025 and beyond. For the Bucs we'll reflect on the first 5 games and the expectations for the final 12. For the Lightning we'll recap some big offseason changes and evaluate whether or not this team is still in a Stanley Cup window. And for the Magic we'll preview this young team on the rise and discuss what the expectations for 2024-25 look like.

Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles are now 1-4 and one of the worst teams in the country, after a 13-0 season and a preseason top 10 ranking. How on earth did this happen?

     Where to begin? A catastrophic drop off like this one is never due to one single thing, and if it were that simple it would be easier to fix. There's a number of contributing factors: the amount of talent they lost to the NFL, poor evaluations on the transfer players they scouted and ultimately brought in to "replace" them, a lack of chemistry on the roster with so many new faces, a lack of leadership on the roster, sub-par high school recruiting classes, poor player development of recruits, etc. I'm not saying all of those are the case, just that all are potential contributing factors.

     The vast drop off really speaks to how special last year's group was. That team was LOADED with NFL talent from Jordan Travis, Cedric Benson, Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Renardo Green, Jarrian Jones, and Jaheim Bell. When healthy, this was a playoff team and a top 5 or 6 team in the country. In addition to their on the field talent, this group had a lot of vocal leaders in the locker room who the younger players respected that could rally and motivate their teammates. 

     The transfer portal is something FSU significantly used to it's advantage the past few years in rebuilding the program into a national contender, however this time around the transfers have greatly underwhelmed. Naturally, it starts with quarterback play, where DJ Uiagalelei has greatly struggled. DJ was brought in as a 1 year rental to bridge the gap between Travis leaving and younger prospects like Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek being ready to take over. But the offense has been one of the worst amongst major programs, only averaging about 15 points per game, and only breaking 20 points once (in Ireland, over a month ago). Not all of the blame rests on DJ, the offensive line has struggled to block and protect, the running backs have struggled to get the run-game going, and the receivers and tight ends have dropped their fair share of passes. All that being said, DJ still has not been good. He has more interceptions than touchdowns and often misses wide open receivers. 

     Keep in mind DJ was originally a plan B. Plan A was Cam Ward, who FSU was battling with Miami with for his commitment. Ward originally spurned both and declared for the NFL draft, causing FSU to enact its backup plan and sign DJ, but then Ward later changed his mind and decided to return to college, signing with Miami since FSU's vacancy had already been filled. Ward is now a Heisman candidate and has Miami undefeated and ranked in the top 10. I'm not convinced that FSU would be undefeated with Ward, but at bare minimum FSU would probably have at least 3 wins, if not 4 or 5.

     It's not like any of the other transfers are doing much better though. FSU thought it had cashed in by adding 5 Alabama transfers following Nick Saban's retirement. All 5 have disappointed thus far. Running back Roydell Williams and wide receiver Malik Benson were supposed to be key pieces of the new offense, but Williams only has 54 rushing yards all season while Benson only has 15 catches and has yet to score a touchdown. Both are seniors and will be gone after this season. FSU's other 3 Bama additions, offensive lineman TJ Fergeson, linebacker Shawn Murphy, and cornerback Earl Little, have barely seen the field. Marvin Jones Jr., an edge rusher who transferred from Georgia who projected as a future first round NFL draft pick has also underwhelmed with only 3 sacks so far on the season. FSU also landed a wide receiver from LSU, Jalen Brown. Brown only has 8 catches so far this season, but he's just a freshmen so at least there's optimism for him to be a bigger piece in the future. The point of the paragraph is that despite the fact that FSU acquired several players from big name programs, it didn't really pan out.

     So what is the realistic expectation for the rest of the season, can FSU even still make a bowl game?

     Let's first recap how we even got here. The season opened in Dublin, Ireland against Georgia Tech, a game FSU lost by a game winning field goal as time expired. At the time this seemed super flukey, and a plethora of excuses were thrown around like it being Week 0 and the game being played in a foreign country with rainy weather, as well as the fact that several of the transfers were still learning the system and how to play with one another. Fast-forward a week and the Seminoles played at home on Labor Day night against Boston College and the Eagles dominated FSU start to finish. A bye week followed and then the Seminoles were back home hosting Memphis. Early mistakes caused FSU to dig itself in a hole it ultimately could not get out of: Roydell Williams fumbled on the second play of the game, DJ threw an interception a couple drives after, and a muffed punt right before halftime. These ultimately led to 13 of Memphis' 20 points, and FSU only managed to score 12. Then came the Cal game, which FSU hung on by the skin of it's teeth to win, in large thanks to the defense holding Cal to 9 points and keeping them out of the end zone the entire game. FSU would then play its first true road game against SMU in Dallas. They competed in the first half, but then in the 2nd half the usual bad habits and shooting themselves in the foot reared it's ugly head and the game got out of hand.

     Regarding a bowl game, it's not likely. Teams have to win 6 out of 12 games to be bowl-eligible. FSU currently sits at 1-4, meaning it would need to win 5 of it's final 7 to reach a bowl game. This would mean winning 1 of it's remaining games against top 15 opponents (vs Clemson, @ Miami, @ Notre Dame), and then winning all of its other games (@ Duke, vs North Carolina, vs Charleston Southern, vs Florida).

     As bad as it's been, I have to imagine Charleston Southern is a win, but there are no guaranteed wins anywhere else on the schedule. That would mean the floor is 2-10. The unlikely ceiling is probably like 7-5, if they beat Duke/UNC/CSU/Florida and then found a way to surprise one of the three ranked teams. In that scenario FSU plays to it's full potential in almost every game, which would include at least one victory as a massive underdog. Truthfully the final win total is probably somewhere in the middle. I'll go ahead and predict they finish with 4 wins, assuming they beat Charleston Southern, and then 2 out of 3 of Duke/UNC/Florida. Keep in mind to FSU may prioritize the youth movement and giving younger players more reps, something that will benefit in the long run, but may cost them a win or two in the current season.

     Regardless, do we even really care about a bowl game? This team had preseason aspirations of winning the ACC again and going to the playoff. Those ships have sailed, they've sailed far far away to another ocean. A bowl game is a nice consolation prize I guess and it gives another game and more practices to some younger players, and it would mean FSU finished it season far stronger than it began, but the standard here demands much more than meaningless bowl games.

     Is there at least hope for 2025, and beyond?

     This isn't going to be easy to fix, but the bright side (if there is one) is that it would be hard to do worse. To me the best approach is to chalk up this season as a wash, and start preparing for the future, specifically by seeing what you have in these younger players and giving them real game experience. 

     That starts with the quarterbacks. Brock Glenn has been thrust into some challenging situations in his first year and a half as a Seminole, but he's been a gold soldier and has earned the right to see the first action. FSU also has true freshman Luke Kromenhoek, an elite 5 star prospect who was one of the top 5 ranked QBs in high school last year. Glenn will see the majority of the playing time, barring an injury, but it would not surprise me if the coaching staff sneaks Kromenhoek in there for some drives here and there to see what he can do.

     Beyond the QBs, there's a slew of underclassmen I'd like to see more of. On the offense I'm hoping to see freshman running back Kam Davis get more touches, as well as more young pass catchers get involved in the pass game such as former 5-star Hykeem Williams (Sophomore) as well as aforementioned LSU transfer Jalen Brown and freshman tight end Landen Thomas. The defense has already elevated some younger guys, especially in the secondary, like Edwin Joseph, Quindarrius Jones, Conrad Hussey, and KJ Kirkland. Sophomores Blake Nichelson and Justin Cryer has also seen meaningful time at linebacker.

    Rebuilding a college program in my opinion is harder than rebuilding a professional one. In pro sports, the worst teams are awarded the highest draft picks in an attempt to keep the competitive balance. There are no drafts in college sports, but rather recruiting. It tends to be harder to convince high school kids to come play for you when the team is losing, and FSU has already had 3 decommitments since the start of the season. The Noles currently have 11 verbal commitments (they'd probably like to get that number close to 20 when it's all said and done) and depending on what website you use, FSU's current 2025 class ranks anywhere between 18th and 35th. For reference, their 2024 class ranked 11 and 12 on those same websites. National Signing Day is December 4 this year, and FSU is still involved with a number of blue-chip prospects. But winning games and selling these kids on the future of the program will be paramount for Norvell and his staff to close out this class.

     Speaking of the staff, I would also expect some changes are coming. Norvell's job is safe (for this year anyways) but someone, probably multiple someones, are going to have to be the fall guys for a season that was such a colossal failure. Starting with the coordinators, the offensive coordinator is Alex Atkins and the defense coordinator is Adam Fuller. Atkins was actually suspended until the Cal game due to a recruiting violation, but Norvell is the one who actually calls the plays. Some have speculated if he would ever give up this responsibility, as delegating to someone else may help him focus on the bigger picture, but I'm not sure that's happening. Fuller's status will largely depend on how these final 7 games go, but the defense has showed more signs of life and growth than the offense thus far. Below the coordinators are all the position coaches, and this is where I think we would see some firings. Linebackers coach Randy Shannon is one I believe will be on the hot seat, as this is a position they've struggled to recruit elite talent and develop players, but I think there would be one or two more changes to be made. 

     In conclusion, rebuilding this program will take some time and a number of different factors. It will take better high school recruiting, more effective use of the transfer portal, good development of the guys currently on the roster, and probably a few staff changes. At this point I still believe Mike Norvell is the right man to lead the ship, considering he led the team to back to back 10 win seasons. He's clearly a hard worker and people continually praise his attention to detail. Fixing all of these problems won't be easy. and won't happen overnight, but hopefully in time brighter days are ahead.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brief offseason recap

     The Buccaneers enterers 2024 coming off a season where they vastly exceeded many people's low expectations. Several "experts" predicted they'd be a bottom 5 team and that some dark days were ahead in a post-Tom Brady world, especially given the team's small salary cap room last offseason. With limited options of affordable quarterbacks available in free agency, the Bucs rolled the dice on Baker Mayfield on a cheap 1 year "prove it" contract. Fortunately for both parties, Baker made the most of the opportunity. The Bucs won the NFC South division again and reached the second round of the playoffs and Baker was rewarded with a long-term more lucrative contract in the offseason.  

     The Bucs has much more cap space this offseason than last, but they used just about all of it to take care of their own. Mike Evans, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield, and Levonte David all received new contracts (or contract extensions) and keeping all 4 was a paramount priority. Evans has been "old faithful" for the Bucs for a decade now and has been one of the most consistent players on the team and in the entire league. Similarly Levonte David, a linebacker is a 13-year veteran, all 13 of those spent in Tampa Bay, and he is one if the anchors of the defense and a leader on and off the field. Wirfs, a left tackle, has the super important task of protecting Baker's blindside, which he's done a tremendous job of and is regarded as one of the best offensive lineman in the league. Similarly Winfield, who plays safety, is arguably the Bucs best defensive player (it's either him or Vita Vea) and locking him up long term is a huge win for the franchise. With the little money that remained, the Bucs brought back an old friend in Jordan Whitehead. Whitehead played in Tampa from 2018-2021, which includes the Super Bowl season where he played safety alongside Winfield (you start 2 safeties). 

     In the NFL draft, the Bucs used their first round pick on Graham Barton, a center out of Duke. Barton has made an instant impact and helped Tampa fortify the offensive line. In round 2 the Bucs selected Chris Braswell, a linebacker from Alabama who Tampa hoped would provide depth at the position and aid aid with run stopping and the pass rush. Tampa had two third round picks (they acquired one from the Detroit Lions in exchange for corner back Carlton Davis) which they used on Georgia safety Tykee Smith and Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan. Smith has become a starter on the defense who has helped the secondary and when healthy McMillan has slotted in nicely as wide receiver #3 behind Evans and Chris Godwin. In the late rounds, Tampa did appear to find a diamond in the rough in running back Bucky Irving, who has had an excellent start and is getting close to a 50/50 split with Rachaad White on running back snaps. 

Brief first 5 games of the season recap

     The Bucs entered 2024 determined to prove that last season was no fluke. The season began against the Washington Commanders, where the Bucs defense was able to take advantage of rookie QB Jayden Daniels and the offense was able to move it up and down the field all day long en route to a commanding 37-20 victory. The following week, the Bucs travelled to Detroit, in what figured to be a good measuring test of how the Bucs stacked up against a true Super Bowl contender. And they measured just fine, as the Bucs marched into Detroit and avenged last season's playoff loss with a huge W against the Lions. The Bucs then returned home to face what appeared to be a lowly Denver Broncos team, but the Bucs absolutely shit the bed in this match up and ended up losing 29-7. This was by far Tampa's worst performance of the season and a complete anomaly relative the other 4 games. After a harsh reality check, the Bucs came out re-focused for the Eagle game and put together another complete performance resulting in a 33-16 victory. Tampa then had a short week as it headed up to Atlanta for it's first primetime match up of the season on Thursday Night Football. This is one the Bucs let slip right through their fingers. They were a first down away from closing out the game, but could not get it, and then allowed the Falcons to drive down the field with less than 2 minutes and no time outs to tie the game and then again let the Falcons drive down the field in overtime to win the game.