Thoughts on FSU/Bucs/Lightning/Magic

 

     Last year I wrote a large piece over the summer on all of our teams, all of which were in the offseason at the time. I never got around to that this summer, so this year we're doing things a little differently.  At this point (December 18), FSU's season is finished (thank God), the Buccaneers have 3 games remaining in their regular season and are making a playoff push, and the Lightning and Magic are about a third of the way through their respective regular seasons.

     So we'll look at all 4 teams. Starting with FSU we'll examine what the Hell went wrong this season and how fixable it is for 2025 and beyond. For the Bucs we'll reflect on the first 14 games and the expectations for the final 3 and then the playoffs. For the Lightning we'll recap some big offseason changes and evaluate whether or not this team is still in a Stanley Cup window. And for the Magic we'll discuss how this team has weathered the storm so far without two of their best players and what the expectations are for the rest of the year.

Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles went 2-10 and were one of the worst teams in the country, after a 13-0 season and a preseason top 10 ranking. How on earth did this happen?

     Where to begin? A catastrophic drop off like this one is never due to one single thing, and if it were that simple it would be easier to fix. There's a number of contributing factors: the amount of talent they lost to the NFL, poor evaluations on the transfer players they scouted and ultimately brought in to "replace" them, a lack of chemistry on the roster with so many new faces, a lack of leadership on the roster, sub-par high school recruiting classes, poor player development of recruits, etc. I'm not saying all of those are the case, just that all are potential contributing factors.

     The vast drop off really speaks to how special last year's group was. That team was LOADED with NFL talent from Jordan Travis, Cedric Benson, Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Renardo Green, Jarrian Jones, and Jaheim Bell. When healthy, this was a playoff team and a top 5 or 6 team in the country. In addition to their on the field talent, this group had a lot of vocal leaders in the locker room who the younger players respected that could rally and motivate their teammates. 

     The transfer portal is something FSU significantly used to it's advantage the past few years in rebuilding the program into a national contender, however this time around the transfers have greatly underwhelmed. Naturally, it starts with quarterback play, where DJ Uiagalelei has greatly struggled. DJ was brought in as a 1 year rental to bridge the gap between Travis leaving and younger prospects like Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek being ready to take over. But the offense was one of the worst amongst major programs, only averaging about 15 points per game, and only scoring more than 21 points once (against Charleston Southern, a cupcake opponent). Not all of the blame rests on DJ, the offensive line struggled to block and protect, the running backs struggled to get the run-game going, and the receivers and tight ends dropped a plethora of passes. All that being said, DJ still was not good. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns and often missed wide open receivers. 

     Keep in mind DJ was originally a plan B. Plan A was Cam Ward, who FSU was battling with Miami with for his commitment. Ward originally spurned both and declared for the NFL draft, causing FSU to enact its backup plan and sign DJ, but then Ward later changed his mind and decided to return to college, signing with Miami since FSU's vacancy had already been filled. Ward went on to be a Heisman finalist and led Miami to a 10-2 record and top 15 ranking. FSU had too many other problems to reach 10-2 with Ward, but they absolutely would have won far more than 2 games, probably 5 or 6 at bare minimum.

     It's not like any of the other transfers did any better though. FSU thought it had cashed in by adding 5 Alabama transfers following Nick Saban's retirement. All 5 ended up dissappointing. Running back Roydell Williams and wide receiver Malik Benson were supposed to be key pieces of the new offense, but Williams only had 53 rushing yards all season (only played in 4 games) while Benson only had 25 catches and 1 touchdown. Benson is out of eligibility and will be gone while Williams' could potentially return on a medical redshirt since he only played in 4 games due to injury. FSU's other 3 Bama additions, offensive lineman TJ Fergeson, linebacker Shawn Murphy, and cornerback Earl Little, barely saw the field, and Murphy is already in the transfer portal again. Marvin Jones Jr., an edge rusher who transferred from Georgia who projected as a future first round NFL draft pick also drastically underwhelmed with only 4 sacks so far on the season. He was a player that had the raw tools but often lacked effort and drive and will also be transferring out of the program. FSU also landed a wide receiver from LSU, Jalen Brown. Brown only had 8 catches all season, but he's just a freshmen so at least there's optimism for him to be a bigger piece in the future. The point of the paragraph is that despite the fact that FSU acquired several players that appeared to have high potential from big name programs, it didn't really pan out.

A brief recap of FSU's abysmal 12 games

     The season began in Dublin, Ireland against Georgia Tech, a game FSU lost by a game winning field goal as time expired. At the time, this seemed super flukey, and a plethora of excuses were thrown around like it being Week 0 and the game being played in a foreign country with rainy weather, as well as the fact that several of the transfers were still learning the system and how to play with one another. Fast-forward a week, and the Seminoles returned home to play Boston College on Labor Day night and the Eagles dominated FSU from start to finish. This was more eye-opening to the fact that FSU wasn't as good as the pre-season hype suggested. The losses just kept piling up from there and the second half of the season FSU had accepted their fate and tried to give reps to younger players who would be building blocks for the future. A handful of them showed flashes of potential and reasons for optimism, and most of them are staying with the program. 

     For what it's worth, FSU's scheduled ended up being more challenging than initially expected. Every team besides Charleston Southern ended up being Bowl Eligible (meaning they finished 6-6 or better). 3 of FSU's opponents ended up making the 12 team playoff (Notre Dame, SMU, Clemson) and a 4th finished in the top 15 (Miami). There were some other unranked teams that really overachieved as well like Memphis finishing 11-2 and Duke finishing 9-3. Georgia Tech, when healthy, proved to be a formidable foe as well, one who beat Miami and nearly beat Georgia.

     Still, a 2-10 record is no excuse at a program as prestigious as FSU. This resulted in multiple staff firings, most notably the offensive and defensive coordinators, and Mike Norvell himself could have been in serious trouble as well if not for a lucrative contract extension last offseason when FSU was trying to lock him down long term before Alabama got involved. 

     

     So what is the realistic expectation for the rest of the season, can FSU even still make a bowl game?

     Regarding a bowl game, it's probably a less than 1% chance. Teams have to win 6 out of 12 games to be bowl-eligible. FSU currently sits at 1-6, meaning it would need to win its remaining 5 games to reach a bowl game. This would mean beating two top 12 teams on the road in Miami and Notre Dame in addition to beating Florida, North Carolina, and Charleston Southern. 

     As bad as it's been, I have to imagine Charleston Southern is a win, but there are no guaranteed wins anywhere else on the schedule. That would mean the floor is 2-10. The unlikely ceiling is probably like 5-7, if they beat UNC/CSU/Florida and then found a way to surprise one of the two ranked teams. In that scenario FSU plays to it's full potential in almost every game, which would include at least one victory as a massive underdog. Truthfully the final win total is probably somewhere in the middle, 3 seems like a reasonable prediction assuming they beat Charleston Southern and then split Florida and UNC (I don't need to tell you which one of those two would be the preference). 

     Regardless, do we even really care about a bowl game? This team had preseason aspirations of winning the ACC again and going to the playoff. Those ships have sailed, they've sailed far far away to another ocean. A bowl game is a nice consolation prize I guess and it gives another game and more practices to some younger players, and it would mean FSU finished it season far stronger than it began, but the standard here demands much more than meaningless bowl games.

     Is there at least hope for 2025, and beyond?

     This isn't going to be easy to fix, but the bright side (if there is one) is that it would be hard to do worse. The staff has the right idea of chalking up this season as a wash, and preparing for the future, specifically by seeing what you have in these younger players and giving them real game experience. 

     That starts with the quarterbacks. Glenn will probably see the majority of the reps as the more senior and experienced option of the two young guys, but I would expect they'd continue to sprinkle in Kromenhoek here and there. One of these two will ultimately emerge as FSU's starting quarterback in 2025 and the staff should prioritize figuring out which of the two is the right man for the job.

     Beyond the QBs, there's a slew of underclassmen we're beginning to see more of. In the Duke game, the staff made the decision to promote freshman Kam Davis to the main running back and he seemed to be up for the task of receiving the bulk of the workload. The staff promoted sophomore Hykeem Williams and freshman Jalen Brown to starting wide receiver roles. Both are still a work in progress but that's better than playing seniors who are still dropping balls regularly and not performing well. FSU has two promising young tight ends in Landen Thomas and Amaree Williams. Thomas was arguably the team's best pass catcher in the Cal and SMU games and Williams had a nice touchdown grab in the Clemson game. The staff also made a couple changes to its senior-laden offensive line by promoting freshman Andre Otto and sophomore Jaylen Early to starters. Moving onto the defense, sophomore Justin Cryer has been emerging at linebacker and is someone the staff is high on and believes could be a future captain of the defense. Omar Graham and Blake Nichelson are also second-year players that figure to be a part of FSU's future at linebacker. In the secondary we're seeing players like Edwin Joseph, Quindarrius Jones, KJ Kirkland, and Conrad Hussey take on more significant roles and all look like they can make a positive impact moving forward. The defensive line is led by 4 juniors, all of whom may have a chance to go to the NFL next season, so this is one of the few areas we aren't seeing younger players yet, but this has been one of the strongest units on the team so that's understandable. Similarly FSU will need a new kicker and punter next year as Ryan Fitzgerald and Alex Mastromanno are both seniors. Those two have been the team's best players.

    Rebuilding a college program in my opinion is harder than rebuilding a professional one. In pro sports, the worst teams are awarded the highest draft picks in an attempt to keep the competitive balance. There are no drafts in college sports, but rather recruiting. It tends to be harder to convince high school kids to come play for you when the team is losing, and FSU has already had 4 decommitments since the start of the season. The Noles currently have 12 verbal commitments (they'd probably like to get that number close to 20 when it's all said and done) and depending on what website you use, FSU's current 2025 class ranks anywhere between 18th and 35th. For reference, their 2024 class ranked 11 and 12 on those same websites. National Signing Day is December 4 this year, and FSU is still involved with a number of blue-chip prospects. But winning games and selling these kids on the future of the program will be paramount for Norvell and his staff to close out this class.

     Speaking of the staff, I would also expect some changes are coming. Norvell's job is safe (for this year anyways) but someone, probably multiple someones, are going to have to be the fall guys for a season that was such a colossal failure. Starting with the coordinators, the offensive coordinator is Alex Atkins and the defense coordinator is Adam Fuller. Atkins was actually suspended until the Cal game due to a recruiting violation, but Norvell is the one who actually calls the plays. Some have speculated if he would ever give up this responsibility, as delegating to someone else may help him focus on the bigger picture, but I'm not sure that's happening. Fuller's status will largely depend on how these final 5 games go, but the defense has showed more signs of life and growth than the offense thus far. Below the coordinators are all the position coaches, and this is where I think we would see some firings. Linebackers coach Randy Shannon is one I believe will be on the hot seat, as this is a position they've struggled to recruit elite talent and develop players. I also think wide receiver coach and FSU-alumn Ron Dugans should be concerned as the dropped balls and lack of elite receiver play has been a major problem this season and he's had two elite high school prospects decommitt from the program this cycle.

     In conclusion, rebuilding this program will take some time and a number of different factors. It will take better high school recruiting, more effective use of the transfer portal, good development of the guys currently on the roster, and probably a few staff changes. At this point I still believe Mike Norvell is the right man to lead the ship, considering he led the team to back to back 10 win seasons. He's clearly a hard worker and people continually praise his attention to detail. Fixing all of these problems won't be easy. and won't happen overnight, but hopefully in time brighter days are ahead.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brief offseason recap

     The Buccaneers enterers 2024 coming off a season where they vastly exceeded many people's low expectations. Several "experts" predicted they'd be a bottom 5 team and that some dark days were ahead in a post-Tom Brady world, especially given the team's small salary cap room last offseason. With limited options of affordable quarterbacks available in free agency, the Bucs rolled the dice on Baker Mayfield on a cheap 1 year "prove it" contract. Fortunately for both parties, Baker made the most of the opportunity. The Bucs won the NFC South division again and reached the second round of the playoffs and Baker was rewarded with a long-term more lucrative contract in the offseason.  

     The Bucs has much more cap space this offseason than last, but they used just about all of it to take care of their own. Mike Evans, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield, and Levonte David all received new contracts (or contract extensions) and keeping all 4 was a paramount priority. Evans has been "old faithful" for the Bucs for a decade now and has been one of the most consistent players on the team and in the entire league. Similarly Levonte David, a linebacker is a 13-year veteran, all 13 of those spent in Tampa Bay, and he is one if the anchors of the defense and a leader on and off the field. Wirfs, a left tackle, has the super important task of protecting Baker's blindside, which he's done a tremendous job of and is regarded as one of the best offensive lineman in the league. Similarly Winfield, who plays safety, is arguably the Bucs best defensive player (it's either him or Vita Vea) and locking him up long term is a huge win for the franchise. With the little money that remained, the Bucs brought back an old friend in Jordan Whitehead. Whitehead played in Tampa from 2018-2021, which includes the Super Bowl season where he played safety alongside Winfield (you start 2 safeties). 

     In the NFL draft, the Bucs used their first round pick on Graham Barton, a center out of Duke. Barton has made an instant impact and helped Tampa fortify the offensive line. In round 2 the Bucs selected Chris Braswell, a linebacker from Alabama who Tampa hoped would provide depth at the position and aid aid with run stopping and the pass rush. Tampa had two third round picks (they acquired one from the Detroit Lions in exchange for corner back Carlton Davis) which they used on Georgia safety Tykee Smith and Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan. Smith has become a starter on the defense who has helped the secondary and when healthy McMillan has slotted in nicely as wide receiver #3 behind Evans and Chris Godwin. In the late rounds, Tampa did appear to find a diamond in the rough in running back Bucky Irving, who has had an excellent start and is getting close to a 50/50 split with Rachaad White on running back snaps. 

Brief first 7 games of the season recap

     The Bucs entered 2024 determined to prove that last season was no fluke. The season began against the Washington Commanders, where the Bucs defense was able to take advantage of rookie QB Jayden Daniels and the offense was able to move it up and down the field all day long en route to a commanding 37-20 victory. The following week, the Bucs travelled to Detroit, in what figured to be a good measuring test of how the Bucs stacked up against a true Super Bowl contender. And they measured just fine, as the Bucs marched into Detroit and avenged last season's playoff loss with a huge W against the Lions. The Bucs then returned home to face what appeared to be a lowly Denver Broncos team, but the Bucs absolutely shit the bed in this match up and ended up losing 29-7. This was by far Tampa's worst performance of the season and a complete anomaly relative the other 6 games. After a harsh reality check, the Bucs came out re-focused for the Eagle game and put together another complete performance resulting in a 33-16 victory. Tampa then had a short week as it headed up to Atlanta for it's first primetime match up of the season on Thursday Night Football. This is one the Bucs let slip right through their fingers. They were a first down away from closing out the game, but could not get it, and then allowed the Falcons to drive down the field with less than 2 minutes and no time outs to tie the game and then again let the Falcons drive down the field in overtime to win the game. The team then headed to New Orleans for another pivotal road divisional match up against the Saints, a game they had to leave earlier for than originally planned due to Hurricane Milton. The Bucs offense was firing on all cylinders in this game as they scored 51 points, the second highest total in franchise history. Finally the team hosted the Ravens on Monday Night Football in what proved to be a very costly loss, as both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin suffered injuries, with Godwin's being season-ending.

     This leaves the Bucs with a record of 4-3. Tied for first in the NFC South division with the Falcons.

Are the Bucs a playoff team? Division champion again? Super Bowl contender???

     I honestly do feel like everything is in play for Tampa. The offense has proven over the first 6 games that it has the potential to score oodles of points and be one of the best in the league. Baker absolutely has it cooking right now and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to be two of the league's most reliable receivers. Rachaad White and Bucky Irving have formed a good 1-2 punch at running back and the offensive line has played well. The defense has been banged up and probably not quite as efficient as the offense, but if the unit enters the playoffs healthier than it is today there's definite reasons for optimism. 

     The division title is going to be a tight race with Atlanta to the very end. The Falcons appear have the offensive firepower and a good enough defense to win the division or at minimum make the playoffs. As aforementioned, the Falcons came from behind to steal a victory from the Bucs' clutches in the first match up in Atlanta. The match up this weekend in Tampa may hold a lot of weight come January. A second win would give the Falcons the tiebreaker if the teams finished with the same record, whereas Tampa defending home turf and getting the season-split at 1 game each would be huge and require further tie breakers if the teams finished with the same record. Only one can win the NFC South but whoever doesn't I believe will still have a good chance of earning a Wild Card birth.

     Looking at the NFC as a whole, the Lions, Vikings, and Packers appear to be contenders that Tampa would need to deal with. I still believe the 49ers will play a factor as well despite their 3-4 start. The Eagles and Cowboys are two teams I'm continually keeping an eye on as well. And the Falcons may still be there too either as a division champ or a wild card.

     If Tampa did outlast all of those teams listed above and reached the Super Bowl, it would face the AFC winner. The Chiefs are an obvious suspect, but the Ravens and Bills are teams I believe could absolutely get there with an outside shot for the Texans as well.

     The season is still early, but unlike Florida State, there are absolutely reasons to be very excited about the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Brief offseason recap

     For the second year in a row, the Lightning's season ended in the first round of the playoffs, this time at the hands of the eventual champion Florida Panthers in 5 games. 

     When the offseason began, the expectation was that it would be very predictable. The Lightning would use the majority of their cap space to re-sign Steven Stamkos and than use the little money that remained to fill out the roster with some cheap depth players. But in the end, that wasn't how it played out.

     The first big splash occurred when Tampa traded for an old friend, Ryan McDonough. McDonough plays defense and was a member of the two championship winning teams in 2020 and 2021, but after the 2022 season the Lightning didn't have cap space to bring him back and thus decided to trade him to the Nashville Predators, where he spent the past two seasons. McDonough is 35 now, bust still good enough to provide a boost to a Tampa defense that desperately needed it. 

      Things then stayed relatively quiet until the draft, when the Bolts decided it was time to move some players to help accumulate some draft picks and young prospects while simultaneously clearing some salaries off the books before free agency began a couple days later. Of the two trades Tampa made that day, the more surprising one was trading away Mikhail Sergachev. Sergachev, who only just turned 26 last month, was Tampa's second best defensemen behind Victor Hedman and appeared to be a big part of Tampa's present and future. However the team ultimately decided to trade him to Utah for a large return that included two players and two draft picks, including a 2025 2nd round pick. The newly acquired players included JJ Moser, a 24 year old defensemen who will probably be Tampa's 4th best defensemen behind Hedman, McDonough, and Erik Cernak, and then Connor Geekie, a 20 year old and former 11th overall pick from two years ago who instantly becomes one of Tampa's highest rated young prospects.

      The other trade Tampa made that day was sending Tanner Jeannot to the LA Kings for two draft picks, including a 2025 2nd round pick. Jeannot was a player the Lightning acquired at the trade deadline two years ago, giving up a king's ransom to get it which included 5 draft picks (including a 1st rounder) and a prospect. Tampa had high hopes for Jeannot, but ultimately this pairing never really panned out as Jeannot rarely helped generate goals, causing this trade to ultimately be viewed as an overpay and loss from Tampa's perspective. Eager to move on and get this salary off the books, Tampa was able to facilitate a trade with the Kings and even received a couple draft picks in return.

      Many assumed that removing the salaries of Sergachev and Jeannot was to make the necessary room to bring Stamkos back on a big contract (since the cap space was smaller after acquiring McDonough earlier in the summer). However, the GM and front office had other plans, instead deciding to pursue the highly-coveted Jake Guentzel. Guentzel is an all-star caliber player who plays the same position as Stamkos but is 5 years younger, and he was one of the most heavily pursued free agents of the 2024 offseason.

     After signing Guentzel to a lucrative contract, Tampa used its remaining money to fill out the roster with affordable depth players.

The season is only 5 games deep, but what have you seen so far and what is the honest expectation for the Bolts this year?

     I think Tampa's start is encouraging. The Bolts opened their season playing three fellow playoff teams, the Carolina Hurricanes, the Vancouver Canucks, and the Las Vegas Golden Knights, and they won all 3 of those games. We knew the team wasn't going 82-0 and the winning streak would end eventually, all good things must come to an end after all, and that was the case when the team travelled to Ottawa and lost by a single goal 5-4 to the Senators.

     Offensively it seems Guentzel is fitting in nicely alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. Tampa is going to score a plethora of goals when those 3 are on the ice together. Behind that main line, we also know that Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Nick Paul can all score goals. Tampa is hopeful that other younger players like Mikey Eyssimont and Mitchell Chaffey can step into bigger roles and contribute offensively as well. 

     On the defense it seems like thus far Moser is filling in nicely next to Hedman, who was also named the new captain of the team following Stamkos' departure. The McDonough/Cernak reunion has also been a good pairing. The final two spots have been a rotation of young players like Darren Raddysh, Nick Perbix, and Emil Lilleberg and the staff is hoping that the experience from last season will carry over into growth this season.

     Finally, it's always good to have Vasy in the net, and even better to have him starting the season fully healthy unlike last year when he was recovering from offseason surgery and missed about a third of the games. Vasy only allowed 1 goal in each of the first two games and then held Vegas to 3 goals in game 3. Jonas Johansson is back as the backup goaltender as well. Johansson gained a lot of valuable experience last season filling in for Vasy and gives the Bolts a comfortable second option. He'll play some nights, especially on days the Bolts have back to back games, as the staff manages Vasy's workload and attempts to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

     The Bolts play in the Atlantic Division, which is always a difficult one since it also includes the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Boston Bruins. All 3 are perennial playoff teams and have become big rivals of Tampa's over the last several years. The silver lining is that on paper Tampa should still be better than the division's other 4 members: the Ottawa Senators, the Buffalo Sabres, the Detroit Red Wings, and the Montreal Canadiens. Other teams to keep an eye on in the Eastern Conference include the New York Rangers, the New Jersey Devils, and the Carolina Hurricanes.